Journal of Bio-Environment Control (생물환경조절학회지)

The Korean Society for Bio-Environment Control (한국생물환경조절학회)
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Model Evaluation for Predicting the Full Bloom Date of Apples Based on Air Temperature Variations in South Korea's Major Production Regions

기온 변화에 따른 우리나라 사과 주산지 만개일 예측을 위한 모델 평가

  • Jae Hoon Jeong (Fruit Research Division, National institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science) ;
  • Jeom Hwa Han (Fruit Research Division, National institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science) ;
  • Jung Gun Cho (Fruit Research Division, National institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science) ;
  • Dong Yong Lee (Fruit Research Division, National institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science) ;
  • Seul Ki Lee (Fruit Research Division, National institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science) ;
  • Si Hyeong Jang (Fruit Research Division, National institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science) ;
  • Suhyun Ryu (Department of Digital Agriculture, Rural Development Administration)
  • 정재훈 (국립원예특작과학원 원예작물부 과수과 ) ;
  • 한점화 (국립원예특작과학원 원예작물부 과수과) ;
  • 조정건 (국립원예특작과학원 원예작물부 과수과 ) ;
  • 이동용 (국립원예특작과학원 원예작물부 과수과 ) ;
  • 이슬기 (국립원예특작과학원 원예작물부 과수과 ) ;
  • 장시형 (국립원예특작과학원 원예작물부 과수과 ) ;
  • 류수현 (농촌진흥청 디지털농업추진단 )
  • Received : 2023.07.04
  • Accepted : 2023.10.30
  • Published : 2023.10.31
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Abstract

This study aimed to assess and determine the optimal model for predicting the full bloom date of 'Fuji' apples across South Korea. We evaluated the performance of four distinct models: the Development Rate Model (DVR)1, DVR2, the Chill Days (CD) model, and a sequentially integrated approach that combined the Dynamic model (DM) and the Growing Degree Hours (GDH) model. The full bloom dates and air temperatures were collected over a three-year period from six orchards located in the major apple production regions of South Korea: Pocheon, Hwaseong, Geochang, Cheongsong, Gunwi, and Chungju. Among these models, the one that combined DM for calculating chilling accumulation and the GDH model for estimating heat accumulation in sequence demonstrated the most accurate predictive performance, in contrast to the CD model that exhibited the lowest predictive precision. Furthermore, the DVR1 model exhibited an underestimation error at orchard located in Hwaseong. It projected a faster progression of the full bloom dates than the actual observations. This area is characterized by minimal diurnal temperature ranges, where the daily minimum temperature is high and the daily maximum temperature is relatively low. Therefore, to achieve a comprehensive prediction of the blooming date of 'Fuji' apples across South Korea, it is recommended to integrate a DM model for calculating the necessary chilling accumulation to break dormancy with a GDH model for estimating the requisite heat accumulation for flowering after dormancy release. This results in a combined DM+GDH model recognized as the most effective approach. However, further data collection and evaluation from different regions are needed to further refine its accuracy and applicability.

사과 '후지' 만개일의 예측을 위해 전국적으로 활용이 가능한 모델을 선발하기 위해 우리나라에서 사용된 사례가 있는 대표적인 모델 4종을 평가하였다. 이를 위해 우리나라 사과 주산지 6곳(포천, 화성, 거창, 청송, 군위, 충주)의 사과원에서 3년간 관측된 기온과 만개일을 수집하여 각 모델에 적용하고 모델의 예측력을 평가 하였다. 냉각량 추정을 위한 Dynamic(DM) 모델과 가온량 추정을 위한 Growing Degree Days(GDH) 모델을 순차적으로 결합한 모델이 예측력이 가장 좋았으며, Chill Days(CD) 모델의 예측력이 가장 낮았다. Development Rate Model 1(DVR1)은 화성 지역과 같이 일 최저기온이 높고 상대적으로 일 최고기온이 낮아 일교차가 작은 지역에서는 실측일보다 빠르게 예측되는 과소추정오차를 보였다. 따라서 단일 모델로 우리나라 전국적인 사과 '후지' 만개일 예측을 위해서는 휴면타파에 필요한 냉각량 산정을 위한 DM 모델과 휴면타파 이후 개화에 필요한 고온량 산정을 위한 GDH 모델이 결합된 DM+GDH 모델이 가장 효과적일 것으로 판단된다. 그러나 보다 광범위한 지역의 장기간의 자료 수집과 이를 이용한 평가가 필요하다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 농촌진흥청 연구사업(과제번호: PJ01699503, RS-2022-RD010279, 과제명: 사과 디지털 과원 안정생산 모델 개발 및 실증)의 지원에 의해 이루어진 것임.

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