Asia-Pacific Journal of Business (아태비즈니스연구)

KNU The Institute of Management & Economy Research (강원대학교 경영경제연구소)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

An Integrated Analysis of Recent Changes in Year-on-Year Consumer Price Index and Aggregate Import Price Index in Republic of Korea through Statistical Inference

  • Seok Ho CHANG (HUFS Business School, Hankuk Universities of Foreign Studies) ;
  • Soonhui LEE (HUFS Business School, Hankuk Universities of Foreign Studies)
  • Received : 2023.02.28
  • Accepted : 2023.03.25
  • Published : 2023.03.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Purpose - Our previous study (Chang & Lee, 2023) presented observations on the recent changes in the year-on-year (YoY) Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the Republic of Korea (ROK) after the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this article is to present an integrated analysis and interpretation of the recent changes in CPI and the Aggregate Import Price Index (IPI) by incorporating recent data, specifically data from September 2022 to December 2022. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected CPI (YoY) data in the ROK from January 2019 to December 2022 using e-National Indicator System provided by the ROK. Statistical analysis was employed to analyze the data. Findings - First, we confirm the extended results of the existing study by Chang and Lee (2023). Second, we demonstrate that the Aggregate IPI in ROK increased significantly in 2022 compared to 2021. We then provide an integrated interpretation on the significant increase in CPI and aggregate IPI in ROK, which complements Chang and Lee (2023) that limits their discussion to YoY CPI. Moreover, we show that the IPI of the semiconductor in ROK decreased significantly in 2022 compared to 2021. Research implications or Originality - Our results provide important insights into the recent changes in the CPI in the ROK. The results suggest that these changes can be partially attributed to various factors, such as the global supply chain disruptions resulting from the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine, the side effect of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve, heat waves and droughts caused by climate change in ROK, a surge in demand following a gradual daily recovery, US-China trade conflict, etc. Our study shows statistically comprehensive results compared to the studies that limit their discussion to YoY average growth rate.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions. This research was supported by Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Research Fund. The first author would like to thank his grandparents, Chang Ok LEE and Choon Soo HAN, for their support and encouragement.

References

  1. Bank of Korea (BoK), ECOS (Economics Statistics System), (2019-2022) Available from https://ecos.bok.or.kr/#/
  2. Blanchard, Olivier (2000). Macroeconomics, 2nd ed., Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall. ISBN:0-13-013306-X.
  3. Chang S.H. and S. Lee (2022), Recent Issues in Supply Chain Management in the post-COVID-19 era - A Summary of Literature Review (in Korean), Scholarcation, ISBN: 979-11-979684-0-2 (95320).
  4. Chang S.H. and S. Lee (2023), "Note on Pattern Changes in Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-On-Year (YoY) of the Republic of Korea since the COVID-19 Pandemic via Statistical Analysis", Indian Journal of Economics and Business, 22(1), 1-8.
  5. Financial Times, January 2, 2023, Recession will Hit a Third of the World this Year, IMF chief warns, Available online at https://www.ft.com/content/e9c4743b-945d-422b-8f4b-3c2a8a237b70
  6. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Blog, Latest Global Growth Forecasts Show Challenges Facing Economies, October 19, 2022, Available online at: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/19/latest-global-growth-forecasts-show-challenges-facing-economies
  7. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2022, Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices, Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/OEMDC
  8. National indicator system in Republic of Korea, Consumer Price Index (in Korean), Available online at: https://www.index.go.kr/unify/idx-info.do?idxCd=4226 and https://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId=DT_1J20003&vw_cd=MT_ZTITLE&list_id=P2_6&scrId=&seqNo=&lang_mode=ko&obj_var_id=&itm_id=&conn_path=MT_ZTITLE&path=%252FstatisticsList%252FstatisticsListIndex.do
  9. Online Supplementary Material, Available online: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/1yOw47-CuRYnmdIIlkwk6uJ_jvSeAxDti
  10. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), An Introduction to Consumer Price Index Methodology, Available online: http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/download/cpi/ch1.pdf
  11. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Inflation, Available online at https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm
  12. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Import Price Index, Available online at: https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1302
  13. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Newsroom, Consumer Prices, OECD - Updated: 6 December 2022, Available at: https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-6-december-2022.htm
  14. Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Monetary Policy Statement, 2022-23, Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), December 5-7, 2022, Available online at: https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=54818
  15. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, Available online at https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
  16. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Import Price Index.
  17. World Bank Blog, January 10, 2023, The Global Economic Outlook in Five Charts, Available online at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/global-economic-outlook-five-charts-0
  18. World Bank, Global Economic Monitor, Available online at: https://data.world/worldbank/global-economic-monitor
  19. World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Global Risks Report 2023, January 11, 2023. Available at https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2023/digest/