Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics (한국항공운항학회지)

The Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics (한국항공운항학회)
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Estimating the Growth Rate of Inbound Air Travelers to Jeju with ARIMA Time-Series - Using Golf Course Visitor Data -

ARIMA 시계열 모형을 이용한 제주도 인바운드 항공여객 증가율 예측 연구 - 제주지역 골프장 내장객 현황 데이터를 활용하여 -

  • 손건희 (주식회사 미예) ;
  • 김기웅 (한국항공대학교 경영학과) ;
  • 신리현 (한국항공대학교 경영학과) ;
  • 이수미 (한국항공협회 항공연구실)
  • Received : 2023.02.10
  • Accepted : 2023.02.24
  • Published : 2023.03.31
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Abstract

This paper used the golf course visitors' data in Jeju region to forecast the growth of inbound air traveler to Jeju. This is because the golf course visitors were proven to bring the highest economic and production inducement effect to the Jeju region. Based on such a data, this paper forecast the short-term growth rate of inbound air traveler using ARIMA to the Jeju until December 2025. According to ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,1,1) model, it was analyzed that the monthly number of golf course visitors to Jeju has been increasing steadily even since COVID-19 pandemic and the number is expected to grow until the end of 2025. Applying the same parameters of ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,1,1) to inbound air travel data, it was found the growth rate of inbound air travelers would be higher than the growth rate of 2019 shortly without moderate variation even though the monthly number of inbound travelers to Jeju had been dropped during COVID-19 pandemic.

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References

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