Atmosphere (대기)

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Study on Characteristics of Climate Variability and Changes in Weather Indexes in Busan Since 1904

1904년 이래의 부산 기후 변동성 및 생활기상지수들의 기후변화 특성 연구

  • Ha-Eun Jeon (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kyung-Ja Ha (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Hye-Ryeom Kim (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
  • 전하은 (부산대학교 지구시스템과학부 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 하경자 (부산대학교 지구시스템과학부 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 김혜렴 (부산대학교 지구시스템과학부 대기환경과학과)
  • Received : 2022.10.12
  • Accepted : 2022.11.21
  • Published : 2023.02.28
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Holding the longest observation data from April 1904, Busan is one of the essential points to understand the climate variability of the Korean Peninsula without missing data since implementing the modern weather observation of the South Korea. Busan is featured by coastal areas and affected by various climate factors and fluctuations. This study aims to investigate climate variability and changes in climatic variables, extremes, and several weather indexes. The statistically significant change points in daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature were found in 1964 and 1965. Based on the change point detection, 117 years were divided into two periods for daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature, respectively. In the long-term temperature analysis of Busan, the increasing trend of the daily maximum temperature during the period of 1965~2021 was larger than the daily mean temperature and the daily minimum temperature. Applying Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, daily maximum temperature is largely affected by the decadal variability compared to the daily mean and minimum temperature. In addition, the trend of daily precipitation intensity from 1964~2021 shows a value of about 0.50 mm day-1, suggesting that the rainfall intensity has increased compared to the preceding period. The results in extremes analysis demonstrate that return values of both extreme temperatures and precipitation show higher values in the latter than in the former period, indicating that the intensity of the current extreme phenomenon increases. For Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (effective humidity), increasing (decreasing) trend is significant in Busan with the second (third)-largest change among four stations.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 부산대학교 기본연구지원사업(2년)에 의하여 연구가 수행되었음. 자료수집에 도움을 준 기후과학연구소 정우진 연구원께 감사를 드립니다.

References

  1. Ahn, S. K., W. Y. Choi, H. J. Shin, and J. H. Heo, 2016: Correlation analysis between climate indices and Korean precipitation and temperature using empirical mode decomposition: II. Correlation analysis. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 49, 207-215, doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.3.207. 
  2. An, S.-I., K.-J. Ha, K.-H. Seo, S.-W. Yeh, S.-K. Min, and C.-H. Ho, 2011: A review of recent climate trends and causes over the Korean peninsula. Journal of Climate Change Research, 2, 237-251. 
  3. Cho, E. S., and C. S. Yoo, 2020: Analysis of the spatiotemporal behavior of precipitation in south Korea based on EOF and CSEOF analyses. Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 20, 21-32, doi:10.9798/KOSHAM.2020.20.4.21. 
  4. Choi, B.-C., J. Y. Kim, D.-G. Lee, and J. Kysely, 2007: Long-term trends of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the major cities of South Korea and their implications on human health. Atmosphere, 17, 171-183. 
  5. Choi, G. Y., and Coauthors, 2009: Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific Network region, 1955~2007. Int. J. Climatol: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 29, 1906-1925, doi:10.1002/joc.1979. 
  6. Coscarelli, R., R. Gaudio, and T. Caloiero, 2004: Climatic trends: an investigation for a Calabrian basin (southern Italy). IAHS PUBLICATION, 286, 255-266. 
  7. Ha, K.-J., and E. Ha, 2006: Climatic change and interannual fluctuations in the long-term record of monthly precipitation for Seoul. Int. J. Climatol: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 26, 607-618, doi:10.1002/joc.1272. 
  8. Ho, C.-H., 2003: Autumn rainy season and typhoon. In Proceedings of the KGS. The Korean Geographical Society, 87-90. 
  9. Hong, S.-K., 1987: Meteorology and fire. 
  10. Huang, N. E., and Z. Wu, 2008: A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: Method and its applications to geophysical studies. Rev. Geophys, 46, doi:10.1029/2007RG000228. 
  11. In, S.-R., S.-O. Han, E.-S. Im, K. -H. Kim, and J. K. Shim, 2014: Study on temporal and spatial characteristics of summertime precipitation over Korean Peninsula. Atmosphere, 24, 159-171, doi:10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.2.159. 
  12. IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers [Portner, H.-O., D. C. Roberts, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3-33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001. 
  13. Japan Sports Association, 2019: Guidebook for Prevention of Enthusiasm during Sports Activities. https://www.wbgt.env.go.jp/wbgt.php#guideline. 
  14. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2000: Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. J. Climate, 13, 3760-3788, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3760:CITEIA>2.0.CO;2. 
  15. Kim, E.-H., M.-K. Kim, and W.-S. Lee, 2005: The regional characteristics of daily precipitation intensity in Korea for recent 30 years. Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society, 26, 404-416. 
  16. Kim, G.-U., J. Ok, K.-H. Seo, and S.-D. Han, 2012: Interdecadal variability and future change in spring precipitation over South Korea. Atmosphere, 22, 449-454, doi:10.14191/Atmos.2012.22.4.449. 
  17. Kim, H. H., K. Mizuno, and W.-S. Kong, 2022: Climate characteristics of South Korean Island region analyzed with AWS observation data. Journal of Climate Change Research, 13, 399-408, doi:10.15531/ksccr.2022.13.4.399. 
  18. Kim, J.-H., and H.-D. Kim, 2017: Comparison of several heat stress indices for the 2016 heat wave in Daegu. Journal of Environmental Science International, 26, 1399-1405, doi: 10.5322/JESI.2017.26.12.1399. 
  19. Kim, J.-U., J. Sang, M.-K. Kim, Y.-H. Byun, D.-H. Kim, and T.-J. Kim, 2022: Future climate projection in South Korea using the high-resolution SSP scenarios based on statistical downscaling. Journal of Climate Research, 17, 89- 106, doi:10.14383/cri.2022.17.2.89. 
  20. Kioutsioukis, I., D. Melas, and C. Zerefos, 2010: Statistical assessment of changes in climate extremes over Greece (1955~2002). Int. J. Climatol, 30, 1723-1737, doi:10.1002/joc.2030. 
  21. Koo, G.-S., K.-O. Boo, and W.-T. Kwon, 2007: The estimation of urbanization effect in Global warming over Korea using daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Atmosphere, 17, 185-193. 
  22. Choi, Y.-E., S.-K. Min, D.-H. Cha, S.-J. Kim, and S.-W. Kim, 2021: 2020 Comprehensive Analysis Report on Climate Change Monitoring. (Report No. 11-1360000-001685-01). Korea Meteorological Administration, [Available online at http://www.climate.go.kr/home/bbs/view.php?code=54&bname=publication&vcode=6592&cpage=1&vNum=120&skind=&sword=&category1=&category2=]. 
  23. Kwon, J.-I., and Y.-E. Choi, 2014: A study on the timing of spring onset over the Republic of Korea using ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 49, 675-689. 
  24. Lee, G.-B, 2015: Data-driven signal decomposition using improved ensemble EMD method. Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering, 19, 279-286, doi:10.6109/jkiice.2015.19.2.279. 
  25. Lee, H.-S, 2022: Increase of extreme events and following changes in the worldwide forest ecosystem. Journal of Geography (Jirihak Nonchong), 68, 61-70. 
  26. Lee, S.-H., and K.-H. Seo, 2011: A multi-scale analysis of the interdecadal change in the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Atmosphere, 21, 143-149, doi:10.14191/Atmos.2011.21.2.143. 
  27. Lee, S.-H., and I.-H. Heo, 2011: The impacts of urbanization on changes of extreme events of air temperature in South Korea. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 46, 257-276. 
  28. Lee, S.-Y., S.-Y. Han, S.-H. An, J.-S. Oh, M.-H. Jo, and M.-S. Kim, 2001: Regional analysis of forest fire occurrence factors in Kangwon province. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 3, 135-142. 
  29. Lee, S.-Y., S.-Y. Han, M.-S. Won, S.-H. An, and M.-B. Lee, 2004: Developing of forest fire occurrence probability model by using the meteorological characteristics in Korea. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 6, 242-249. 
  30. Lei, Y., Z. He, and Y. Zi, 2009: Application of the EEMD method to rotor fault diagnosis of rotating machinery. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 23, 1327-1338, doi:10.1016/j.ymssp.2008.11.005. 
  31. Lesk, C., P. Rowhani, and N. Ramankutty, 2016: Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production. Nature, 529, 84-87, doi:10.1038/nature16467. 
  32. Liang, C., G. Zheng, N. Zhu, Z. Tian, S. Lu, and Y. Chen, 2011: A new environmental heat stress index for indoor hot and humid environments based on Cox regression. Building and Environment, 46, 2472-2479, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.06.013. 
  33. Liu, Y., G. Huang, and R. Huang, 2011: Inter-decadal variability of summer rainfall in Eastern China detected by the Lepage test. Theor. Appl. Climatol, 106, 481-488, doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0442-8. 
  34. Martonne, E. D. 1926: L'indice d'aridite. Bulletin de l'Association de geographes francais, 3, 3-5, doi:10.3406/bagf.1926.6321. 
  35. Meehl, G. A., and C. Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305, 994-997, doi:10.1126/science.1098704. 
  36. Meehl, G. A., F. Zwiers, J. Evans, T. Knutson, L. Mearns, and P. Whetton, 2000: Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 81, 427-436, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:TIEWAC>2.3.CO;2. 
  37. Na, H., and W.-S. Jung, 2020: Autumn typhoon affecting the Korean Peninsula-Past and present characteristics. J. Korean Soc. Atmos. Environ., 36, 482-491, doi:10.5572/KOSAE.2020.36.4.482. 
  38. Park, B.-I. 2011: The change of seasonal trend appeared in wintertime daily mean temperature of Seoul, Korea. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 46, 152-167. 
  39. Park, M.-H., and Coauthors, 2016: Analysis on variation of diurnal temperature range of Busan and Daegu according to urbanization. Journal of Environmental Science International, 25, 295-310, doi:10.5322/JESI.2016.25.2.295. 
  40. Pellicone, G., T. Caloiero, and I. Guagliardi, 2019: The De Martonne aridity index in Calabria (Southern Italy). Journal of Maps, 15, 788-796, doi:10.1080/17445647.2019.1673840. 
  41. Tabari, H., P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, S. S. M. Nadoushani, and P. Willems, 2014: A survey of temperature and precipitation based aridity indices in Iran. Quat. Int., 345, 158-166, doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2014.03.061. 
  42. Thom, E. C. 1959: The Discomfort Index. Weatherwise, 12, 57-61, doi:10.1080/00431672.1959.9926960. 
  43. Won, M. S., S. H. Yoon, and K. C. Jang, 2016: Developing Korean forest fire occurrence probability model reflecting climate change in the spring of 2000s. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 18, 199-207, doi:10.5532/KJAFM.2016.18.4.199. 
  44. Wu, Z., and N. E. Huang, 2009: Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 1, 1-41, doi:10.1142/S1793536909000047. 
  45. Yaglou, C. P., and D. Minaed, 1957: Control of heat casualties at military training centers. Arch. Indust. Health, 16, 302-316.  https://doi.org/10.21236/AD0099920
  46. Yonetani, T., and G. J. McCabe, 1994: Abrupt changes in regional temperature in the conterminous United States, 1895~1989. Climate Res., 4, 13-23, doi:10.3354/CR004013. 
  47. Yousif, T. A., and H. M. Tahir, 2013: Application of Thom's thermal discomfort index in Khartoum state, Sudan. Journal of Forest Products and Industries, 2, 36. 
  48. Yun, J., K.-J. Ha, and Y.-H. Jo, 2018: Interdecadal changes in winter surface air temperature over East Asia and their possible causes. Climate Dyn., 51, 1375-1390, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3960-y. 
  49. Yun, K.-S., S.-H. Shin, K.-J. Ha, A. Kitoh, and S. Kusunoki, 2008: East Asian precipitation change in the global warming climate simulated by a 20-km mesh AGCM. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 233-247. 
  50. Zwiers, F. W. and V. V. Kharin, 1998: Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2 doubling. J. Climate, 11, 2200-2222. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2200:CITEOT>2.0.CO;2.