Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure

Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering (응용생태공학회)
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Real-Time Flood Forecasting by Using a Measured Data Based Nomograph for Small Streams

계측자료 기반 Nomograph를 이용한 실시간 소하천 홍수량 산정 연구

  • Tae Sung Cheong (National Disaster Management Institute, Ministry of Interior and Safety) ;
  • Changwon Choi (National Disaster Management Institute, Ministry of Interior and Safety) ;
  • Sung Je Yei (National Disaster Management Institute, Ministry of Interior and Safety) ;
  • Kang Min Koo (Corp. HydroSEM)
  • 정태성 (행정안전부 국립재난안전연구원) ;
  • 최창원 (행정안전부 국립재난안전연구원) ;
  • 예성제 (행정안전부 국립재난안전연구원) ;
  • 구강민 (주식회사 하이드로셈)
  • Received : 2023.12.11
  • Accepted : 2023.12.12
  • Published : 2023.12.31
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Abstract

As the flood damage on small streams increase due to the increase in frequency of extreme climate events, the need to measure hydraulic data of them has increased for disaster risk management. National Disaster Management Institute, Ministry of Interior and Safety develops CADMT, a CCTV-based automatic discharge measurement technology, and operates pilot small streams to verify its performance and develop disaster risk management technology. The research selects two small streams such as the Neungmac and the Jungsunpil streams to develop the Nomograph by using the 4-Parameter Logistic method using only the observed rainfall data from the Automatic Weather System operated by the Korea Meteorological Agency closest to the small streams and discharge data collected by using the CADMT. To evaluate developed Nomograph, the research forecasts floods discharges in each small stream and compares the result with the observed discharges. As a result of the evaluations, the forecasted value is found to represent the observed value well, so if more accurate observed data are collected and the Nomograph based on it is developed in the future, the high-accuracy flood prediction and warning will be possible.

극한호우 발생빈도 증가로 소하천 홍수 피해가 증가하고 있어 소하천 리스크 관리를 위해 유량 계측 요구가 증가하고 있다. 이에 행정안전부 (MOIS) 소속 국립재난안전연구원 (NDMI)은 CCTV 기반 자동유량계측기술 (CCTV based Automatic Discharge Measurement Technology, CADMT)을 개발하고 성능 검증과 재난 리스크 관리기술 개발을 위해 시범소하천을 운영하고 있다. 본 연구는 CADMT가 설치된 능막천과 중선필천 2개 소하천을 선정하고 소하천에 가장 가까운 기상청 Automatic Weather System 강우량 자료와 유량 계측자료를 이용해 4-Parameter Logistic 방법으로 Nomograph를 개발한다. 개발한 Nomograph를 검증하기 위하여 본 연구는 각 소하천에서 홍수량을 예측하고 그 결과를 계측 유량과 비교한다. 검증 결과 예측치는 계측치를 잘 재현하는 것으로 나타나 향후, 보다 정확도 높은 계측자료가 수집되고 이에 기반한 Nomograph가 개발된다면 정확도 높은 홍수 예·경보가 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 행정안전부 국립재난안전연구원의 연구비지원(NDMI-PR-2023-07-04-02)에 의해 수행되었습니다.

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