Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A preliminary study on the determination of drought stages at the local level

지역 단위 가뭄단계 판단규칙 개발에 관한 연구

  • Lee, Jongso (Construction Economy & Industry Research Division, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements) ;
  • Jeon, Daeun (Chemicals Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Yoon, Hyeoncheol (National Intergrated Drought Center, national Disaster Management Research Institute) ;
  • Kam, Jonghun (Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Lee, Sangeun (Land & Infrastructure Safety Research Center, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements)
  • 이종소 (국토연구원 건설경제산업연구본부) ;
  • 전다은 (국립환경과학원 화학물질연구과) ;
  • 윤현철 (국립재난안전연구원 국가통합가뭄센터) ;
  • 감종훈 (포항공과대학교 환경공학부) ;
  • 이상은 (국토연구원 안전국토연구센터)
  • Received : 2023.10.24
  • Accepted : 2023.11.29
  • Published : 2023.12.31
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Abstract

This study aims to develop rules for the Determination of Drought Stages at the Local Level based on the drought cases in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do in 2022-2023. Among the eight drought indicators provided, six indicators (Agricultural drought stage (for paddy), Residential & industrial drought stage, SPI-12, Relative agricultural water storage, Residential water consumption change (for domestic use), Residential water consumption change (for non-domestic use) were confirmed to have statistical correlations with the perceptions of local government officials and experts. Additionally, this drought indicator was applied to a decision tree algorithm to develop rules for determining the severity of drought. Although it presented results similar to those of the existing method presented in previous studies, it showed a significant comparative advantage in explaining the temporal and spatial patterns of drought in the Gwangju and Jeollanam-do.

본 연구는 2022-2023 광주･전남지역 가뭄 사례를 바탕으로 지역 단위에서 가뭄의 심각성을 토대로 가뭄단계를 판단하는 규칙을 개발하기 위해 실시되었다. 전국의 시･군 단위로 발표되는 8가지 가뭄지표 중에서 농업용수(논) 가뭄단계, 생･공용수 가뭄단계, SPI-12, 농업용 저수지 저수율, 예년 대비 가정용수 사용량 변화율, 예년 대비 비가정용수 사용량 변화율 등의 6가지 지표는 담당자･전문가들의 인식과 통계적 상관성을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 이 가뭄지표를 의사결정트리 알고리즘에 적용하여 가뭄의 심각성을 판단하기 위한 규칙을 도출하였는데, 선행연구에서 제안한 기존의 방법과 유사한 결과를 제시하나, 광주･전남지역 가뭄에서 확인된 시･공간적인 패턴을 설명하는데 있어서 상당한 비교우위를 보였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 행정안전부 재난안전공동연구 기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(2022-MOIS63-001(RS-2022-ND641011)).

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