International journal of advanced smart convergence

The Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication (한국인터넷방송통신학회)
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Development of a Model to Predict the Volatility of Housing Prices Using Artificial Intelligence

  • Jeonghyun LEE (Department of Real Estate Studies, Konkuk University) ;
  • Sangwon LEE (Dept. of Computer & Software Engineering, Wonkwang Univ.)
  • Received : 2023.10.10
  • Accepted : 2023.10.20
  • Published : 2023.12.31
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Abstract

We designed to employ an Artificial Intelligence learning model to predict real estate prices and determine the reasons behind their changes, with the goal of using the results as a guide for policy. Numerous studies have already been conducted in an effort to develop a real estate price prediction model. The price prediction power of conventional time series analysis techniques (such as the widely-used ARIMA and VAR models for univariate time series analysis) and the more recently-discussed LSTM techniques is compared and analyzed in this study in order to forecast real estate prices. There is currently a period of rising volatility in the real estate market as a result of both internal and external factors. Predicting the movement of real estate values during times of heightened volatility is more challenging than it is during times of persistent general trends. According to the real estate market cycle, this study focuses on the three times of extreme volatility. It was established that the LSTM, VAR, and ARIMA models have strong predictive capacity by successfully forecasting the trading price index during a period of unusually high volatility. We explores potential synergies between the hybrid artificial intelligence learning model and the conventional statistical prediction model.

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Acknowledgement

This paper was supported by Wonkwang University in 2022.

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