Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Evaluation and comparison of water balance and budget forecasts considering the domestic and industrial water usage pattern

생활 및 공업용수 물이용 패턴을 고려한 물수급 전망 비교 및 고찰

  • Oh, Ji Hwan (Water Resources Management Research & Planning Department, K-water) ;
  • Lim, Dong Jin (Water Resources Management Research & Planning Department, K-water) ;
  • Kim, In Kyu (Water Resources Policy Divison, Ministry of Environment) ;
  • Shin, Jung Bum (Water Resources Management Research & Planning Department, K-water) ;
  • Ryu, Ji Seong (Water Resources Management Research & Planning Department, K-water)
  • 오지환 (한국수자원공사 물관리기획처) ;
  • 임동진 (K-water 물관리기획처) ;
  • 김인규 (환경부 수자원정책관 수자원정책과) ;
  • 신정범 (K-water 물관리기획처) ;
  • 류지성 (K-water 물관리기획처)
  • Received : 2022.09.20
  • Accepted : 2022.10.19
  • Published : 2022.11.30
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Abstract

In this study, monthly water use data were collected for 5 years from the 65 local governments included in the Han-river basin and a typical water usage ratios and patterns were calculated. The difference in water shortage was compared by considering the water usage patterns using the water balance and budget analysis model (MODSIM) and data base. As a result, it was confirmed that the change occurred in the range of -3.120% to +4.322% compared to the monthly constant ratio by period. In addition, when applying the patterns in the water balance model, 17 of the 28 middle watershed showed changes in the quantity of water shortage and the domestic and industrial water shortage would decrease about 8.0% during the maximum drought period. If it is applied in conjunction with predictive research on water usage patterns reflecting climate change, social and regional characteristics in the future, it will be possible to establish a more realistic water supply forecasts and a reliable national water resources plan.

본 연구에서는 한강 권역의 포함된 65개 지자체를 대상으로 5년간 월별 물이용량 자료를 수집, 분석하여 월 단위의 대표적인 생공용수 물이용 패턴을 도출하고, 물수급 네트워크 모델(MODSIM)과 기초자료를 이용하여 물이용 패턴을 반영함에 따른 유역 내 발생 가능한 물부족량의 차이를 비교하였다. 분석 결과, 특정 시기별 물이용 주기성을 파악하고, 월별 일정 비율 대비-3.120%~+4.322%의 증감 폭이 나타남을 확인하였다. 이를 물수급 모델에 적용할 경우, 28개 중권역 중 17개 유역에서 물부족량의 변화가 나타났고, 연간 동일한 수요량임에도 불구하고, 시기별 수요량의 비율을 적용함에 따라 최대 생공용수 부족량은 기존대비 약 8.0% 수준으로 감소할 것으로 분석되었다. 장래 기후변화, 사회적, 지역적 특성이 반영된 물이용 패턴에 대한 예측 연구와 연계한다면, 더욱 현실감 있는 물수급 전망과 신뢰도 높은 국가수자원계획 수립이 가능할 것이라고 판단된다.

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