Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회논문집)

Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회)
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Prediction of Changes in Demand for Urban Infrastructures Based on Population Decline and its Reorganization Method - In the Cases of Correctional Facilities in Korea -

인구감소에 따른 도시기반시설의 수요변화 예측과 재편방안 - 국내 교정시설 사례를 중심으로 -

  • Noh, Hyeogjin (Dept. of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Ko, Woorim (Institute of Environment and Health, Population Policy Research Center, Seoul National University) ;
  • Cho, Youngtae (Institute of Environment and Health, Population Policy Research Center, Seoul National University) ;
  • Baek, Jin (Dept. of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • 노혁진 (서울대학교 건축학과) ;
  • 고우림 (서울대학교 보건환경연구소 인구정책연구센터) ;
  • 조영태 (서울대학교 보건환경연구소 인구정책연구센터) ;
  • 백진 (서울대학교 건축학과)
  • Received : 2022.08.16
  • Accepted : 2022.09.30
  • Published : 2022.11.30
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Abstract

Based on future population projections from Statistics Korea, the population decline issue in Korea is expected to intensify. Even in the planning of correctional facilities, the declining number of unconvicted prisoners was not taken into account because of the immediate overcrowding situation. The number of unconvicted prisoners also decreased due to the continuous decline in population. It has been confirmed that by 2060, the number of unconvicted prisoners will reach 74% to 50.3% of the current number of prisoners by region. Therefore, this study proposes a quantitative method for reorganizing correctional facilities to reflect the decreasing number of unconvicted prisoners in a correctional facility plan based on the number of unconvicted prisoners over the past five years and future domestic population estimation data until 2060. In the cases of the Seoul Regional Correctional Headquarter (RCH), the Daegu RCH, and the Gwangju RCH, some of the currently in use facilities must be reorganized rather than reconstructed to keep the occupancy rate close to the target occupancy rate. Meanwhile, at the Daejeon RCH, the overcrowding situation is expected to continue for the time being, even if the number of unconvicted prisoners decrease. To maintain the target occupancy rate of 85% by region through the method proposed in this study, by 2060, eight facilities in Seoul RCH, ten facilities in Daegu RCH, none in Daejeon RCH, and four facilities in Gwangju RCH should be reorganized.

Keywords

References

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