The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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How can the post-war reconstruction project be carried out in a stable manner? - terrorism prediction using a Bayesian hierarchical model

전후 재건사업을 안정적으로 진행하려면? - 베이지안 계층모형을 이용한 테러 예측

  • Received : 2022.02.19
  • Accepted : 2022.05.08
  • Published : 2022.10.31
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Abstract

Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the United States declared war on terror and invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, winning quickly. However, interest in analyzing terrorist activities has developed as a result of a significant amount of time being spent on the post-war stabilization effort, which failed to minimize the number of terrorist activities that occurred later. Based on terrorist data from 2003 to 2010, this study utilized a Bayesian hierarchical model to forecast the terrorist threat in 2011. The model depicts spatiotemporal dependence with predictors such as population and religion by autonomous district. The military commander in charge of the region can utilize the forecast value based on the our model to prevent terrorism by deploying forces efficiently.

2001년 9.11 테러 이후 미국은 테러와의 전쟁을 선포하면서 아프가니스탄과 이라크침공하여 단기간에 정규전 승리를 이끌었다. 하지만 이후 발생한 다수의 테러를 통제하지 못해 전후 국가 재건을 돕는 안정화 작전에 상당시간이 소요되면서, 전후 테러활동의 분석에 대한 관심이 높아지게 되었다. 본 연구에서는 시공간 종속성을 반영하는 베이지안 계층 모형을 이용해 2003년부터 2010년까지 이라크에서 발생한 테러 자료를 기반으로 시·공간 요인, 자치구별 인구·종교와 같은 예측 변수들과 자치구별 테러 빈도수와의 관계를 분석하고, 2011년의 테러 위협을 예측하였다. 이렇게 구한 예측치를 바탕으로 해당지역 담당 군 지휘관이 효율적인 부대 배치를 통해 테러방지에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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