Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회논문집)

Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회)
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Development of Occupancy Prediction Model and Performance Comparison According to the Recurrent Neural Network Models

순환 신경망 모델에 따른 재실 인원 예측모델 개발 및 성능비교

  • Choi, Young Jae (Dept. of Architecture and Building Science, Chung-Ang University) ;
  • Park, Bo Rang (Dept. of Architecture and Building Science, Chung-Ang University) ;
  • Hyun, Ji Yeon (Dept. of Architecture and Building Science, Chung-Ang University) ;
  • Moon, Jin Woo (Dept. of Architecture and Building Science, Chung-Ang University)
  • Received : 2022.07.19
  • Accepted : 2022.09.20
  • Published : 2022.10.30
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Abstract

An accurate occupancy prediction is essential for occupant-centric control (OCC) that saves energy while providing a comfortable indoor environment. Various machine learning-based approaches are being tried to develop an occupancy prediction model. Among these approaches, the performance of the recurrent neural network (RNN) based models, showed strength in time series forecasting and were found to be superb. However, studies related to performance comparison between RNN based models are insufficient; although the model performance had possibility for improvement through optimization. Therefore, in this study the RNN, long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models were developed to predict the number of occupants after 15, 30, and 60 minutes. The optimal models for each prediction horizon were derived through optimization and performance evaluation. As a result, the GRU model presented the best performance. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the prediction model after 15 minutes was 0.8073, 1.5301, the prediction model after 30 minutes was 1.2841, 2.3386, and 2.0769, 3.3685, for the prediction model after 60 minutes. These results show superior performance compared to the existing RNN based models and signify that it is possible to provide accurate values for various prediction horizons. Thus, if outlier supplementation and addition of the adaptation function are implemented through an algorithm in the future, the developed models are expected to be utilized as a key element for OCC.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 산업통상자원부(MOTIE)와 한국에너지기술평가원(KETEP)의 지원을 받아 수행한 연구 과제입니다. (No. 20212020800120)

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