Asia-Pacific Journal of Business (아태비즈니스연구)

KNU The Institute of Management & Economy Research (강원대학교 경영경제연구소)
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An Analysis on Regional Ripple Effects of the Sale and Chenosei Prices of the Apartments: A GVAR Approach

아파트 매매가격 및 전세가격의 지역별 파급효과: GVAR 모형 접근법

  • 윤재형 (국립안동대학교 경제학과)
  • Received : 2022.06.26
  • Accepted : 2022.09.28
  • Published : 2022.09.30
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Abstract

We analyze the regional ripple effects of both the sale prices and cheonsei prices using the global VAR(GVAR) model. The interest rate shock causes the regional sale prices to fall. Moreover, the greatest responses to the shock are those of Gangnam-gu, etc. because of there were many transactions for investment purpose. When interest rate rose, the cheonsei price in Gangnam-gu reacted greatly. Conversely, if interest rates fall, the cheonsei demand to live in Gangnam-gu increases. Furthermore, the response of sale price to the interest rate shock are greater than those of the cheonsei prices. Whereas, a positive shock on the sale price in Gangnam-gu increases the sale price there. It also raises the sale prices of the surrounding area in a similar pattern. The shock on the sale price in Gangnam-gu also increases the cheonsei price in Gangnam-gu. In addition, an increase in the sale price in Gangnam-gu leads to increases of cheonsei prices in other regions. Therefore, the recent rise of the base rate can negatively affect the sale prices, and thus a decrease in the sale price spreads to the surrounding areas. Accordingly, it is time for policy alternatives to make a soft landing in sale prices.

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Acknowledgement

이 논문은 안동대학교 기본연구지원사업에 의하여 연구되었음

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