Dispersion Model of Initial Consequence Analysis for Instantaneous Chemical Release

순간적인 화학물질 누출에 따른 초기 피해영향 범위 산정을 위한 분산모델 연구

Most factories deal with toxic or flammable chemicals in their industrial processes. These hazardous substances pose a risk of leakage due to accidents, such as fire and explosion. In the event of chemical release, massive casualties and property damage can result; hence, quantitative risk prediction and assessment are necessary. Several methods are available for evaluating chemical dispersion in the atmosphere, and most analyses are considered neutral in dispersion models and under far-field wind condition. The foregoing assumption renders a model valid only after a considerable time has elapsed from the moment chemicals are released or dispersed from a source. Hence, an initial dispersion model is required to assess risk quantitatively and predict the extent of damage because the most dangerous locations are those near a leak source. In this study, the dispersion model for initial consequence analysis was developed with three-dimensional unsteady advective diffusion equation. In this expression, instantaneous leakage is assumed as a puff, and wind velocity is considered as a coordinate transform in the solution. To minimize the buoyant force, ethane is used as leaked fuel, and two different diffusion coefficients are introduced. The calculated concentration field with a molecular diffusion coefficient shows a moving circular iso-line in the horizontal plane. The maximum concentration decreases as time progresses and distance increases. In the case of using a coefficient for turbulent diffusion, the dispersion along the wind velocity direction is enhanced, and an elliptic iso-contour line is found. The result yielded by a widely used commercial program, ALOHA, was compared with the end point of the lower explosion limit. In the future, we plan to build a more accurate and general initial risk assessment model by considering the turbulence diffusion and buoyancy effect on dispersion.