Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Error analysis of areal mean precipitation estimation using ground gauge precipitation and interpolation method

지점 강수량과 내삽기법을 이용한 면적평균 강수량 산정의 오차 분석

  • Hwang, Seokhwan (Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Kang, Narae (Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Yoon, Jung Soo (Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology)
  • 황석환 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부) ;
  • 강나래 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부) ;
  • 윤정수 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부)
  • Received : 2022.10.25
  • Accepted : 2022.11.15
  • Published : 2022.12.31
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Abstract

The Thiessen method, which is the current area average precipitation method, has serious structural limitations in accurately calculating the average precipitation in the watershed. In addition to the observation accuracy of the precipitation meter, errors may occur in the area average precipitation calculation depending on the arrangement of the precipitation meter and the direction of the heavy rain. When the watershed is small and the station density is sparse, in both simulation and observation history, the Thiessen method showed a peculiar tendency that the average precipitation in the watershed continues to increase and decrease rapidly for 10 minutes before and after the peak. And the average precipitation in the Thiessen basin was different from the rainfall radar at the peak time. In the case where the watershed is small but the station density is relatively high, overall, the Thiessen method did not show a trend of sawtooth-shaped over-peak, and the time-dependent fluctuations were similar. However, there was a continuous time lag of about 10 minutes between the rainfall radar observations and the ground precipitation meter observations and the average precipitation in the basin. As a result of examining the ground correction effect of the rainfall radar watershed average precipitation, the correlation between the area average precipitation after correction is rather low compared to the area average precipitation before correction, indicating that the correction effect of the current rainfall radar ground correction algorithm is not high.

현행 면적평균 강수량 산정 방법인 티센 방법은 정확한 유역평균 강수량 산정에 있어 심각한 구조적 한계가 존재한다. 강수량계의 관측 정확도 외에, 강수량계 배치와 호우의 이동 방향에 따라서도 면적평균 강수량 산정에 오차가 발생할 수 있다. 유역이 작고 관측소 밀도가 희박한 경우 시뮬레이션 및 관측 사상 모두에서 티센 방법은 첨두 전후로 10분 사이에 유역평균 강수량이 계속 급격히 증감이 반복되는 특이한 경향 보였다. 그리고 티센 유역평균 강수량은 첨두 시점이 강우레이더와 다르게 나타났다. 유역이 작지만 관측소 밀도 비교적 높은 경우에는 전반적으로 티센 방법에 의해 톱니모양의 과대 첨두치의 경향은 나타나지 않았고 시간에 따른 변동이 유사하게 나타났다. 그러나 강우레이더 관측치와 지상 강수량계 관측치 유역평균 강수량 사이에 약 10분 정도의 연속적인 시차가 발생하였다. 강우레이더 유역평균 강수량의 지상보정 효과를 검토한 결과, 보정 후 면적평균 강수량이 보정 전 면적평균 강수량에 비해 오히려 상관이 낮게 나타나, 현행 강우레이더 지상보정 알고리즘 보정 효과가 높지 않은 것을 알 수 있었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 행정안전부 기후변화대응 AI기반 풍수해 위험도 예측기술개발 사업의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(2022-MOIS61-003).

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