Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering (한국정보통신학회논문지)

The Korea Institute of Information and Commucation Engineering (한국정보통신학회)
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Improvement of early prediction performance of under-performing students using anomaly data

이상 데이터를 활용한 성과부진학생의 조기예측성능 향상

  • Received : 2022.09.05
  • Accepted : 2022.09.30
  • Published : 2022.11.30
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Abstract

As competition between universities intensifies due to the recent decrease in the number of students, it is recognized as an essential task of universities to predict students who are underperforming at an early stage and to make various efforts to prevent dropouts. For this, a high-performance model that accurately predicts student performance is essential. This paper proposes a method to improve prediction performance by removing or amplifying abnormal data in a classification prediction model for identifying underperforming students. Existing anomaly data processing methods have mainly focused on deleting or ignoring data, but this paper presents a criterion to distinguish noise from change indicators, and contributes to improving the performance of predictive models by deleting or amplifying data. In an experiment using open learning performance data for verification of the proposed method, we found a number of cases in which the proposed method can improve classification performance compared to the existing method.

최근 학생 수 감소로 인한 대학 간 경쟁이 심화되면서 성과부진학생을 조기에 예측하고, 중도이탈을 예방하기 위해 다양한 노력을 기울이는 것은 대학의 필수 업무로 인식되고 있다. 이를 위해서는 학생의 성과를 정밀하게 예측하는 우수한 성능의 모델이 필수적이다. 본 논문은 성과부진학생을 식별하기 위한 분류 예측 모델에서 이상 데이터를 제거하거나 증폭을 통해 예측 성능을 향상시키는 방법에 대해 제안한다. 기존 이상데이터 처리방법은 주로 데이터를 삭제하거나 무시하는데 집중되었지만 이 논문에서는 잡음과 변화지표를 구분하는 기준을 제시하고, 데이터를 삭제하거나 증폭함으로써 예측 모델의 성능을 높이는데 기여한다. 제안 방법의 검증을 위해 공개된 학습 성과 데이터를 활용한 실험에서 기존 방법에 비해 제안방법이 분류 성능을 향상시킬 수 있는 다수의 사례를 발견할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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