DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Fixed Versus Floating Interest Rates in Shipping Finance: A Behavioral Finance Perspective

  • Kim, Wu-Seok (Graduate School of National Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
  • Received : 2021.05.24
  • Accepted : 2021.10.26
  • Published : 2021.10.31

Abstract

This study analyzed the decision-making process in ship finance for the choice between fixed and floating interest rates using behavioral finance theories. Results confirmed that causes and background of decision-making processes could be explicitly explained by the framework of behavioral finance theories. This study also determined whether decisions were irrational. A case-study research was applied as the methodology. Decision-making data on ship finance collected through narrative and questionnaire responses were analyzed and evaluated using behavioral finance theories. Theories of behavioral finance used in the analysis and research of this study included availability heuristic, anchoring effect, and opportunity cost theory. Narrative and survey responses were clearly explained by theories of behavioral finance. It was found that a shipping company suffered additional losses owing to decisions that included behavioral finance errors. Behavioral finance theories largely influenced the decision-making process of choosing between a fixed interest rate and a floating interest rate. Shipping finance decisions related to interest rate selections could be clearly explained by behavioral finance theories. Errors related to behavioral finance could result in irrational decisions. Thus, managers who are responsible for shipping finance should remain vigilant toward any behavioral finance errors when making shipping finance decisions.

Keywords

References

  1. Agans, R. P. and Shaffer, L. S.(1994), "The Hindsight Bias: The Role of the Availability Heuristic and Perceived Risk.", Basic and Applied Social Psychology 15 (4): 439-449. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15324834basp1504_3
  2. Ariely, D. and Simonson, I.(2003), "Buying, Bidding, Playing, or Competing? Value Assessment and Decision Dynamics in Online Auctions.", Journal of Consumer Psychology 13 (1&2): 113-123. https://doi.org/10.1207/153276603768344834
  3. Baddeley, M.(2017), Behavioural Economics: A Very Short Introduction, 1st ed. Oxford University Press.
  4. Barberis, N. and Thaler, R.(2002), A Survey of Behavioural Finance, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  5. Bell, E., Bryman, A. and Harley, B.(2019), Business Research Methods, 5th ed. New York: Oxford University Press.
  6. Bennis, W. M. and Pachur, T.(2006), "Fast and Frugal Heuristics in Sports.", Psychology of Sport and Exercise 7: 611-629. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2006.06.002
  7. Bloomberg(2020), "USD 3M LIBOR.", Bloomberg Terminal.
  8. Buckingham, C. D. and Adams, A.(2000), "Classifying Clinical Decision Making: Interpreting Nursing Intuition, Heuristics and Medical Diagnosis.", Journal of Advanced Nursing 32 (4): 990-998. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2648.2000.t01-1-01603.x
  9. Camerer, C. F., Loewenstein, G. and Rabin, M.(2004), Advances in Behavioral Economics, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  10. Chang, E. C., Rhee, M. W. and Wong, K. P.(1995), "A Note on the Spread Between the Rates of Fixed and Variable Rate Loans.", Journal of Banking and Finance: 1479-1487. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(94)00113-H
  11. Chang, T. P. and Chou, R. Y.(2018), "Anchoring Effect on Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Heterogeneity Approach.", Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting XXI (4).
  12. Chatterjee, S., Rai, D. and Heath, T. B.(2016), "Tradeoff Between Time and Money: The Asymmetric Consideration of Opportunity Costs.", Journal of Business Research 69: 2560-2566. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.10.136
  13. Chava, S. and Purnanandam, A.(2007), "Determinants of the Floating-to-Fixed Rate Debt Structure of Firms.", Journal of Financial Economics 85(3): 755-786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.06.004
  14. Chen, C. S., Cheng, J. C., Lin, F. C. and Peng, C.(2017), "The Role of House Money Effect and Availability Heuristic in Investor Behaviour.", Management Decision 55 (8): 1598-1612. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-10-2016-0725
  15. Cho, I., Wesslen, R., Karduni, A., Santhanam, S., Shaikh, S. and Dou, S.(2017). "The Anchoring Effect in Decision-Making with Visual Analytics.", In IEEE Conference on Visual Analytics Science and Technology: 116-126.
  16. Cornell, B.(1983), "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View.", Journal of Business 56 (1): 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1086/296183
  17. Creswell, J. W.(2013), Qualitative Inquiry and Research Design: Choosing Among Five Approaches, 3rd Edition. SAGE Publications Inc.
  18. Davies, G.(2020), "As Covid Optimism Grows, Investors Seek to Hedge Against Inflation Risk", Financial Times, December 14.
  19. Detmer, D. E., Fryback, D. G. and Gassner, K.(1978), "Heuristics and Biases in Medical Decision-making.", Journal of Medical Education: 53.
  20. Dijk, M. V.(2017), "Estimating the Weight of Opportunity Costs in Housing Consumption.", Applied Economics 49 (57): 5762-5770. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1340579
  21. Englich, B. and Mussweiler, T.(2001), "Sentencing Under Uncertainty: Anchoring Effects in the Courtroom.", Journal of Applied Social Psychology 31 (7): 1535-1551. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2001.tb02687.x
  22. Englich, B., Mussweiler, T. and Strack, F.(2005), "The Last Word in Court - A Hidden Disadvantage for the Defense.", Law and Human Behavior 29 (6): 705-722. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10979-005-8380-7
  23. Faulkender, M.(2005), "Hedging or Market Timing? Selecting the Interest Rate Exposure of Corporate Debt.", Journal of Finance 60 (2): 931-962. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00751.x
  24. Fiske, S. T. and Taylor, S. E.(1991), Social Cognition, New York: McGraw-Hill.
  25. Fleming, S.(2016), "Federal Reserve Sets Stage for 2016 US Interest Rate Rise", Financial Times, September 21. https://www.ft.com/content/cb0f4316-8022-11e6-8e50-8ec15fb462f4
  26. Forbes, W.(2009), Behavioural Finance, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  27. Frederick, S., Novemsky, N., Wang, J., Dhar, R. and Nowlis, S.(2009), "Opportunity Cost Neglect.", Journal of Consumer Research 36 (4): 553-561. https://doi.org/10.1086/599764
  28. Galinsky, A. D., Leonardelli, G. J., Okhuysen, G. A. and Mussweiler, T.(2005), "Regulatory Focus at the Bargaining Table: Promoting Distributive and Integrative Success.", Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 31 (8): 1087-1098. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167205276429
  29. Galinsky, A. D. and Mussweiler, T.(2001), "First Offers as Anchors: The Role of Perspective-Taking and Negotiator Focus.", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (4): 657-669. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.81.4.657
  30. Galinsky, A. D., Mussweiler, T. and Medvec, V. H.(2002), "Disconnecting Outcomes and Evaluations: The Role of Negotiator Focus.", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 83 (5): 1131-1140. https://doi.org/10.1037//0022-3514.83.5.1131
  31. Gao, S., Cao, F. and Fok, C. W.(2019), "The Anchoring Effect of Underwriter's Proposed Price Ranges on Institutional Investors' Bid Prices in IPO Auctions: Evidence from China.", International Review of Economics and Finance 63: 111-127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2018.08.013
  32. Graham, J. R. and Rogers, D. A.(2002), "Do Firms Hedge in Response to Tax Incentives?", The Journal of Finance 57 (2).
  33. Greenberg, A. E. and Spiller, S. A.(2016), "Opportunity Cost Neglect Attenuates the Effect of Choices on Preferences.", Psychological Science 27 (1): 103-113. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797615608267
  34. Haden, V. R., Niles, M. T., Lubell, M., Perlman, J. and Jackson, L. E.(2012), "Global and Local Concerns: What Attitudes and Beliefs Motivate Farmers to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change?", PLoS ONE 7 (12): e52882. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052882
  35. Harwood, S.(1995), Shipping Finance. 2nd ed. Euromoney Institutional Investor.
  36. Hedrick, T. E., Bickman, L. and Rog, D. J.(1993), Applied Research Design, SAGE Publications Inc.
  37. Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U. and Erev, I.(2004), "Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice.", Psychological Science 15 (8): 534-539. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00715.x
  38. Hoskin, R. E.(1983), "Opportunity Cost and Behavior.", Journal of Accounting Research, 21(1): 78-95. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490937
  39. Hosking, P.(2020), "Inflation is Back on the Menu - And Not Only Because of Brexit.", The Times, December 14. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inflation-is-back-on-the-menu-and-not-only-because-of-brexit-jrqkcvsnd
  40. Kahneman, D.(2011), Thinking Fast and Slow, New York: Farror, Straus and Giroux.
  41. Kliger, D. and Kudryavtsev, A.(2010), "The Availability Heuristic and Investors' Reaction to Company-Specific events.", The Journal of Behavioral Finance 11 (1): 50-65. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427561003591116
  42. Klonoski, R.(2013), "The Case for Case Studies: Deriving Theory from Evidence.", Journal of Business Case Studies 9 (3): 261-266. https://doi.org/10.19030/jbcs.v9i3.7805
  43. Ku, G., Galinsky, A. D. and Murnighan, J. K.(2006), "Starting Low But Ending High: A Reversal of the Anchoring Effect in Auctions.", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 90 (6): 975-986. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.90.6.975
  44. Kudryavtsev, A.(2018), "The Availability Heuristic and Reversals Following Large Stock Price Changes.", Journal of Behavioral Finance 19 (2): 159-176. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2017.1374276
  45. Kwak, Y. S.(2016), "캠코선박, 국적선 5척 추가 매입." Maritime Press, December 01. http://www.maritimepress.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=111257
  46. Larrick, R. P., Nisbett, R. E. and Morgan, J. N.(1993), "Who Uses the Cost-Benefit Rules of Choice? Implications for the Normative Status of Microeconomic Theory.", Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 56: 331-347. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1993.1058
  47. Leininger, E.(2016), "'Dot Plot' shows Fed governors expect fewer rate hikes in 2016.", Bloomberg Professional Services, April 4. https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/dot-plot-shows-fed-governors-expect-fewer-rate-hikes-in-2016/
  48. Li, H. and Mao, C. X.(2003), "Corporate Use of Interest Rate Swaps: Theory and Evidence.", Journal of Banking & Finance 27 (8): 1511-1538. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00275-3
  49. Liao, L. C., Chou, R. Y. and Chiu, B.(2013), "Anchoring Effect on Foreign Institutional Investors' Momentum Trading Behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market.", North American Journal of Economics and Finance 26: 72-91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2013.07.001
  50. Mackenzie, M.(2020), "Inflation Debate Looms Large Over US Market Outlook.", Financial Times December 12. https://www.ft.com/content/ac477555-c39a-47c0-9cb2-f74da885b67f
  51. Mackey, T. B. and Barney, J. B.(2013), "Incorporating Opportunity Costs in Strategic Management Research: The Value of Diversification and Pay Out as Opportunities Forgone When Reinvesting in the Firm.", Strategic Organization 11 (4): 347-363. https://doi.org/10.1177/1476127013481447
  52. Makin, J.(2011), "American Hero.", International Economy 25 (2): 24-24.
  53. Marinemoney(2020), "Deal Database.", Accessed September 20, 2020. https://www.marinemoney.com/deals
  54. Mase, A. S., Cho, H. and Prokopy, L. S.(2015), "Enhancing the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) by Exploring Trust, the Availability Heuristic, and Agricultural Advisors' Belief in Climate Change.", Journal of Environmental Psychology 41: 166-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.12.004
  55. McClure, S. M., Laibson, D. I., Loewenstein, G. and Cohen, J. D.(2004), "Separate Neural Systems Value Immediate and Delayed Monetary Rewards.", Science 306 (5695): 503-507. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100907
  56. Mussweiler, R. and Strack, F.(2000), "The Use of Category and Exemplar Knowledge in the Solution of Anchoring Tasks.", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (6): 1038-1052. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.78.6.1038
  57. Mussweiler, T., Strack, F. and Pfeiffer, T.(2000), "Overcoming the Inevitable Anchoring Effect: Considering the Opposite Compensates for Selective Accessibility.", Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 26 (9): 1142-1150. https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672002611010
  58. Neumann, B. R. and Friedman, L. A.(1978), "Opportunity Costs: Further Evidence Through an Experimental Replication.", Journal of Accounting Research 16 (2): 400-410. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490574
  59. Northcraft, G. B. and Neale, M. A.(1987), "Experts, Amateurs and Real Estate: An Anchoring-and-Adjustment Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions.", Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes 39: 84-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(87)90046-X
  60. Phillips, O. R., Battalio, R. C. and Kogut, C. A.(1991), "Sunk and Opportunity Costs in Valuation and Bidding.", Southern Economic Journal 58 (1): 112-128. https://doi.org/10.2307/1060037
  61. Plantinga, A., Krijnen, J. M. T., Zeelenberg, M. and Breugelmans, S. M.(2018), "Evidence for Opportunity Cost Neglect in the Poor.", Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 31: 65-73. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2041
  62. Poses, R. M. and Anthony, M.(1991), "Availability, Wishful Thinking and Physicians' Diagnostic Judgments for Patients with Suspected Bacteremia.", Medical Decision Making 11(3): 159-168. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989x9101100303
  63. Read, D., Olivola, C. Y. and Hardisty, D. J.(2017), "The Value of Nothing: Asymmetric Attention to Opportunity Costs Drives Intertemporal Decision Making.", Management Science 63 (12): 4277-4297. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2547
  64. Ritter, J. R.(2003), "Behavioral Finance.", Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 11: 429-437. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-538X(03)00048-9
  65. Shiller, R. J.(1998), Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  66. Shiller, R. J., Konya, F. and Tsutsui, Y.(1996), "Why Did the Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection.", The Review of Economics and Statistics 78 (1): 156-164. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109855
  67. Sjoberg, L. and Engelberg, E.(2010), "Risk Perception and Movies: A Study of Availability as a Factor in Risk Perception.", Risk Analysis 30 (1): 95-106. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01335.x
  68. Smith, C. W. and Stulz, R.(1985), "The Determinants of Firms' Hedging Policies.", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 20 (4): 391-405. https://doi.org/10.2307/2330757
  69. Spiller, S. A.(2011), "Opportunity Cost Consideration.", Journal of Consumer Research 38 (4): 595-610. https://doi.org/10.1086/660045
  70. Stake R.(1995), The Art of Case Study Research. Los Angeles, California: Sage.
  71. Stapel, D. A., Reicher, S. D. and Spears, R.(1995), "Contextual Determinants of Strategic Choice: Some Moderators of the Availability Bias.", European Journal of Social Psychology 25: 141-158. https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2420250203
  72. Sunstein, C. R.(2006), "The Availability Heuristic, Intuitive Cost-Benefit Analysis, and Climate Change.", Climatic Change 77: 195-210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9073-y
  73. Thaler, R.(1980), "Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice.", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 1: 39-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(80)90051-7
  74. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D.(1973), "Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability.", Cognitive Psychology 5: 207-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9
  75. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D.(1974), "Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.", Science 185 (4): 1124-1131. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
  76. Tversky, A. and Koehler, D. J.(1994), "Support Theory: A Non-Extensional Representation of Subjective Probability.", Psychological Review 101 (4): 547-567. https://doi.org/10.1037//0033-295X.101.4.547
  77. Verousis, T. and Gwilym, O. A.(2014), "The Implications of a Price Anchoring Effect at the Upstairs Market of the London Stock Exchange.", International Review of Financial Analysis 32: 37-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.12.001
  78. Visvanathan, C.(1998), "Who Uses Interest Rate Swaps? A Cross-Sectional Analysis.", Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 13 (3): 173-200. https://doi.org/10.1177/0148558X9801300301
  79. Wall, L. D. and Pringle, J. J.(1989), "Alternative Explanations of Interest Rate Swaps: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.", Financial Management 18 (2): 59-73. https://doi.org/10.2307/3665893
  80. Whyte, G. and Sebenius, J. K.(1997), "The Effect of Multiple Anchors on Anchoring in Individual and Group Judgment.", Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes 69 (1): 75-85. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1996.2674
  81. Wilkinson, N. and Klaes, M.(2012), An Introduction to Behavioral Economics, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  82. Wright, W. F. and Anderson, U.(1989), "Effects of Situation Familiarity and Financial Incentives on Use of the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic for Probability Assessment.", Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes 44: 68-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(89)90035-6
  83. Yellen, J. L.(2016), Current Conditions and the Outlook for the U.S. Economy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 6. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20160606a.htm
  84. Yin, R. K.(2009), Case Study Research: Design and Methods, 4th ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
  85. Yin, R. K.(2014), Case Study Research: Designs and Methods, Los Angeles, California: Sage.
  86. Zauberman, G. and Urminsky, O.(2016), "Consumer Intertemporal Preferences.", Current Opinion in Psychology 10: 136-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2016.01.005