Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure

응용생태공학회 (Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering)
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SSPs 시나리오에 따른 미국쥐손이 적합 서식지 분포 예측

Prediction of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for Geranium carolinianum under SSP scenarios

  • 오영주 ((주)미래환경생태연구소) ;
  • 김명현 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 최순군 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 김민경 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 어진우 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 엽소진 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 방정환 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 이용호 (고려대학교 오정에코리질리언스 연구소)
  • Oh, Young-Ju (Institute for Future Environmental Ecology Co., Ltd.) ;
  • Kim, Myung-Hyun (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Science) ;
  • Choi, Soon-Kun (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Science) ;
  • Kim, Min-Kyeong (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Science) ;
  • Eo, Jinu (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Science) ;
  • Yeob, So-Jin (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Science) ;
  • Bang, Jeong Hwan (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Science) ;
  • Lee, Yong Ho (O-jeong-Eco-Resilience Institute)
  • 투고 : 2021.09.17
  • 심사 : 2021.10.01
  • 발행 : 2021.09.30
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초록

본 연구는 최근 국내에 귀화식물로 기록된 미국쥐손이의 적합 서식지의 분포에 영향을 미치는 요인을 파악하고, 미래의 변화를 예측하고자 수행되었다. 전국을 대상으로 총 68개 지점에서 미국쥐손이의 출연 자료를 수집하고 MaxEnt 모델을 적용하여 기준년대(1981~2010)와 기후시나리오에 따른 미래의 적합 서식지 분포를 예측했다. 미국쥐손이의 분포에는 강수량 계절성(bio15), 가장 따뜻한 분기의 평균기온(bio10), 가장 건조한 분기의 평균기온(bio09)가 크게 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화에 따라 미국쥐손이의 높은 수준의 적합 서식지는 기준년도에 우리나라 면적의 6.43%를 차지하였고, 먼미래(2071~2100)에는 SSP2-4.5 하에서 92.60%까지, SSP5-4.8 하에서 98.36%까지 차지하는 것으로 예측되었다.

This study was carried out to identify the factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for Geranium carolinianum, which was naturalized in South Korea, and to predict the changes of distribution in the future. We collected occurrence data of G. carolinianum at 68 sites in South Korea, and applied the MaxEnt model under climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Precipitation seasonality (bio15), mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), and mean temperature of driest quarter (bio09) had high contribution for potential distribution of G. carolinianum. According to climate change scenarios, high suitable habitats of G. carolinianum occupied 6.43% of the land of South Korea in historical period (1981~2010), and 92.60% under SSP2-4.5, and 98.36% undr SSP5-8.5 in far future (2071~2100).

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 농촌진흥청 공동연구사업(과제번호: PJ01480801, PJ01480804)의 지원에 의해 이루어진 것임.

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