Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering (한국정보통신학회논문지)

The Korea Institute of Information and Commucation Engineering (한국정보통신학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Forecasting the Diffusion of Participating Countries with the Introduction of the "International Defense Industry Cooperation Program of Korea"

한국형 국제국방산업협력제도 도입시 방산협력국가 수요확산 예측 연구

  • Nam, Myoung-Yul (Korea University Graduate School of Management of Technology) ;
  • Kang, Seok-Joong (Korea University Graduate School of Management of Technology)
  • Received : 2021.07.06
  • Accepted : 2021.08.12
  • Published : 2021.09.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study intends to provide a forecast of the diffusion of countries participating in a newly proposed G to G mechanism named as the "International Defense Industry Cooperation Program of Korea", modeled after the U.S. Foreign Military Sales(FMS). For this purpose, the study analyses 40 years of statistical data of U.S. FMS customers to find two parameters, coefficient of innovation and imitation, which explain the diffusion in FMS customers. Furthermore, the study forecasts the diffusion in international participation to the proposed mechanism taking account of the differences in the level of government competitiveness and the strength of defense industrial base of Korea and the U.S. This study also provides recommendations for accelerating the desired outcomes under the new program. While Korea is likely to have relative advantages over 'imitators' in the international market, it will need to gain competitiveness in high-level capabilities going beyond the realm of medium-high level systems, and present attractive alternatives for offsets.

본 연구에서는 한국 방산분야에서 정부분야 경쟁력 향상을 위하여 미국의 FMS 제도를 모델로 하여 한국형 G to G 방위산업협력을 위한 국제국방산업협력제도 도입 시, 국방산업협력국가 확산이 어떻게 이루어질 것인지를 Bass 모델을 통해 예측한다. 이를 위해 미국의 FMS에 참여한 국가 데이터를 기반으로 수요국가 확산을 설명할 수 있는 확산계수와 모방계수를 추정하였다. 또한 이 계수들에 대하여 미국과 한국의 정부분야 경쟁력 차이와 종합적인 방산 경쟁력 차이를 적용하여 한국의 상황을 고려한 확산 패턴을 예측하였고, 조기에 확산을 이룰 수 있는 방안을 제시한다. 한국은 국제방산시장에서 모방구매자들에게 상대적인 우위를 점할 수 있을 것으로 보이며, 확산을 조기화하기 위해서는 Medium-High급 무기체계에서의 경쟁력을 High급까지 확장시켜야 하며, 미국의 FMS에서 정부가 주도하지 않는 절충교역 분야인 산업협력을 포함한 대안 제공을 강화하여야 한다.

Keywords

References

  1. SIPRI, SIPRI Yearbook 2020 Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Summary, pp. 13, 2020.
  2. DAPA, Defense Acquisition Program Statistical Yearbook 2018, Gyeryong : Korea Armed Forces Printing & Publishing Depot, pp. 215-220, 2018.
  3. KIET, 2018 KIET Defense Industry Statics and Competitiveness white paper, pp. 125-159, 2019.
  4. Y. H. Lee, H. K. Cho, W. J. Kim, and C. R. Kang, "A study on Forecasting the diffusion of Certified Testing Service Institutions and Direction of Policy Making in Defense Industry," IE Interfaces, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 255-263, 2012. https://doi.org/10.7232/IEIF.2012.25.2.255
  5. D. U. Lee, "Exploratory research on the analysis of national R&D Programs using growth model," KISTEP Study paper 2014-17, 2013. DOI: 10.23000/TRKO201400012780.
  6. K. S. Kim, "T-50 Market Forecasting by Diffusion Theory," Ms dissertation, Gyeong-sang National University, 2010.
  7. U. S. Government Accountability Office. (2010). Defense Exports Reporting on Exported Articles and Services needs to be improved [Internet]. Available: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-10-952.
  8. D. H. Kim, "Status of Defense Industry Export Supporting System and Improvement measures," National Assembly Research Service, no. 169, 2020.
  9. Congressional Budget Office. (1967). Budgetary Cost Savings to the Department of Defense Resulting from Foreign Military Sales [Internet]. pp. 1-2. Available: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA529071.pdf.
  10. Congress of the United States. (1967). The Effect of Foreign Military Sales in the U.S. Economy. pp. 1-27. [Internet]. Available: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Effect-of-Foreign-Military-Sales-on-the-U.S.-Capra-Brooks/0df3621caef8f0406ac078831b21859ac87edee4.
  11. F. M. Bass. (1967). A New Product Growth Model for consumer Durables. Perdue University Institute paper. [Internet]. Available: https://jstor.org/stable/30046153.
  12. H. Y. Lee, Marketing Research Theory, Seoul, Chungram, pp.548-549, 2013.
  13. J. S. Hong, T. G. Kim, and D. O. Lim, "A study on Long-term Demand Forecasting and Characterization of Diffusion Process for Medical Equipments based on Diffusion Model," Korea J. of Health Policy & Administration, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 85-110, 2008.
  14. DSCA, Financial Policy and Analysis Business Operations Historical Facts Book, 2017. [Internet]. Available: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2018-10/us_dscafacts_2017.pdf.
  15. W. J. Jang, J. P. Song, and M. J. Kim, KIET Defense Industry Statics and Competitiveness White Paper, pp. 125-158. 2018.
  16. DAPA, "18~22 Defense Industry Development Master Plan," pp. 21, 2018. [Internet]. Available: https://policy.nl.go.kr/search/searchDetail.do?rec_key=SH2_PLC20180218735.