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광역교통시설 건설계획이 주택시장에 미치는 영향 -수도권 광역급행철도, 주택소비심리지수 및 실거래가 분석을 중심으로-

Impact of Large-scale Transportation Infrastructure Plan on the Housing Markets -Focus on GTX, Housing Consumer Confidence Index and Sales Prices-

  • 최의진 (경기대학교 스마트시티공학부 도시.교통공학과) ;
  • 김정화 (경기대학교 스마트시티공학부 도시.교통공학과)
  • Choi, Ui-Jin (Department of Urban Transportation Engineering, Kyonggi University) ;
  • Kim, Jung-Hwa (Department of Urban Transportation Engineering, Kyonggi University)
  • 투고 : 2021.05.12
  • 심사 : 2021.09.20
  • 발행 : 2021.09.28

초록

수도권광역급행철도(이하 GTX) 노선의 확정은 인근지역의 주택에 대한 소비자의 심리와 매매 가격에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 본 연구는 GTX B 노선이 확정됨에 따라 소비자의 심리, 주택가격이 어떻게 변화하는지 살펴보고, 소비자 심리와 주택가격 간의 관계를 살펴 새로운 교통시설 유입이 어떠한 영향력이 있는지 분석하고자 하였다. 본 연구는 상관분석을 이용해 소비자심리지수와 아파트 실거래가 간의 관계를 파악하고, 이중차분법을 이용하여 GTX가 소비자심리지수와 아파트 실거래가에 끼치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 분석 결과, 본 연구에서는 GTX로 대상을 한정하였지만 수도권의 대규모 교통인프라의 건설 계획은 주택소비심리와 실거래에 영향을 미친다는 점을 검증할 수 있었다. 정부가 '서울 도심까지 30분 내 출퇴근 가능 도시'를 목표로 GTX 등 광역교통망 구축에 속도를 올리고 있는 상황에 인프라에 대한 집중적 투자뿐만 아니라 이에 의해 영향을 받을 수 있는 교통거점지역 내 주택시장의 안정성을 확보할 수 있는 복합적 정책 대안이 제시되어야 한다.

Constructing the Metropolitan Railway Express (the GTX) may have an impact on consumer confidence and housing sales price located near the planned route. This study looked at how consumers' psychology and housing prices change as the large-scale transport infrastructure plane was planned. Also, it looked at the relationship between consumer sentiment and housing prices to analyze the impact of new transportation facilities inflows. Using a correlation analysis, the relationship between the consumer sentiment index and the actual transaction price of apartments was identified. The impact of GTX on the consumer sentiment index and the actual transaction price of apartments was looked at using the Difference-in-Differences methodology. Our finding shows that the construction plan of a large-scale transportation infrastructure in the metropolitan area affects the sentiment of housing consumption and actual transactions. In a situation where the government is speeding up the construction of a wide-area transportation network such as GTX with the goal of becoming a city where people can commute to downtown Seoul within 30 minutes, policies that can stabilize the housing market in transportation hubs should be suggested.

키워드

참고문헌

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