Journal of Species Research

  • 제10권3호
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  • Pages.246-254
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  • 2021
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  • 2234-7909(pISSN)
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  • 2713-8615(eISSN)
국립생물자원관 (The National Institute of Biological Resources)
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Predicting the potential distribution of the subalpine broad-leaved tree species, Betula ermanii Cham. under climate change in South Korea

  • Shin, Sookyung (Department of Biological Resources Utilization, National Institute of Biological Resources) ;
  • Dang, Ji-Hee (Department of Biological Resources Utilization, National Institute of Biological Resources) ;
  • Kim, Jung-Hyun (Department of Biological Resources Research, National Institute of Biological Resources) ;
  • Han, Jeong Eun (Department of Biological Resources Utilization, National Institute of Biological Resources)
  • 투고 : 2021.06.14
  • 심사 : 2021.07.15
  • 발행 : 2021.08.31
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초록

Subalpine and alpine ecosystems are especially vulnerable to temperature increases. Betula ermanii Cham. (Betulaceae) is a dominant broad-leaved tree species in the subalpine zone and is designated as a 'Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species' in South Korea. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of B. ermanii under current and future climate conditions in South Korea using the MaxEnt model. The species distribution models showed an excellent fit (AUC=0.99). Among the climatic variables, the most critical factors shaping B. ermanii distribution were identified as the maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5; 64.8%) and annual mean temperature (Bio1; 20.3%). Current potential habitats were predicted in the Baekdudaegan mountain range and Mt. Hallasan, and the area of suitable habitat was 1531.52 km2, covering 1.57% of the Korean Peninsula. With global warming, future climate scenarios have predicted a decrease in the suitable habitats for B. ermanii. Under RCP8.5-2070s, in particular, habitat with high potential was predicted only in several small areas in Gangwon-do, and the total area suitable for the species decreased by up to 97.3% compared to the current range. We conclude that the dominant factor affecting the distribution of B. ermanii is temperature and that future temperature rises will increase the vulnerability of this species.

키워드

과제정보

This work was supported by a grant from the National Institute of Biological Resources(NIBR), funded by the Ministry of Environment (MOE) of the Republic of Korea (NIBR202129101).

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