Nuclear Engineering and Technology

Korean Nuclear Society (한국원자력학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Time uncertainty analysis method for level 2 human reliability analysis of severe accident management strategies

  • Received : 2020.05.08
  • Accepted : 2020.07.21
  • Published : 2021.02.25
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This paper proposes an extended time uncertainty analysis approach in Level 2 human reliability analysis (HRA) considering severe accident management (SAM) strategies. The method is a time-based model that classifies two time distribution functions-time required and time available-to calculate human failure probabilities from delayed action when implementing SAM strategies. The time required function can be obtained by the combination of four time factors: 1) time for diagnosis and decision by the technical support center (TSC) for a given strategy, 2) time for strategy implementation mainly by the local emergency response organization (ERO), 3) time to verify the effectiveness of the strategy and 4) time for portable equipment transport and installation. This function can vary depending on the given scenario and includes a summation of lognormal distributions and a choice regarding shifting the distribution. The time available function can be obtained via thermal-hydraulic code simulation (MAAP 5.03). The proposed approach was applied to assess SAM strategies that use portable equipment and safety depressurization system valves in a total loss of component cooling water event that could cause reactor vessel failure. The results from the proposed method are more realistic (i.e., not conservative) than other existing methods in evaluating SAM strategies involving the use of portable equipment.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by a Nuclear Research & Development Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant, funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) (Grant Code: 2017M2A8A4015291).

References

  1. D.A. Topmiller, J.S. Eckel, E.J. Kozinsky, Human Reliability Data Bank for Nuclear Power Plant Operations (NUREG/CR-2744, vol. 1, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, USA, 1982.
  2. J. Reason, Human Error, Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, 1990.
  3. P. Moieni, A.J. Spurgin, A. Singh, Advances in human reliability analysis methodology. Part I: Frameworks, models and data, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 44 (1) (1994) 27-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(94)90105-8
  4. J. Kim, J. Cho, Technical challenges in modeling human and organizational actions under severe accident conditions for Level 2 PSA, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 194 (2020) 106239, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.08.003
  5. V.N. Dang, G.M. Schoen, B. Reer, Overview of the modeling of severe accident management in the Swiss probabilistic safety analyses, in: Workshop Proceedings of ISAMM 2009: Implementation of Severe Accident Management Measures, 2010.
  6. V. Fauchille, H. Bonneville, J.Y. Maguer, Experience feedback from Fukushima towards human reliability analysis for level 2 probabilistic safety assessments, in: International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 12), June, Honolulu, Hawaii, 2014, June.
  7. N. Siu, D. Marksberry, S. Cooper, K. Coyne, M. Stutzke, PSA technology challenges revealed by the Great East Japan earthquake, in: PSAM Topical Conference in Light of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident Tokyo, Japan, 2013, April.
  8. J. Kim, et al., Level 2 HRA: A SAMG-Based Detailed HRA Method, KAERI/TR-8118/2020, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), 2020.
  9. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, in: Conference Record of the 1981 IEEE Standards Workshop on Human Factors and Nuclear Safety. Myrtle Beach, SC, USA, August/September 1981, IEEE Catalog No. TH0098-4, 1982.
  10. G.W. Hannaman, A.J. Spurgin, Y.D. Lukic, Human Cognitive Reliability Model for PRA Analysis (EPRI RP 2170-3), Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 1984.
  11. G.W. Hannaman, A.J. Spurgin, Y.D. Lukic, A model for assessing human cognitive reliability in PRA studies, in: IEEE Third Conference on Human Factors and Power Plants, Monterey, CA, USA, 1985.
  12. V. Joksimovich, et al., EPRI operator reliability experiments program: Model development/testing, in: Proceedings PSA '89, International Topical Meeting on Probability, Reliability and Safety Assessment, American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, IL, USA, 1989.
  13. G.W. Parry, B.O.Y. Lydell, A.J. Spurgin, P. Moieni, A. Beare, An Approach to the Analysis of Operator Actions in Probabilistic Risk Assessment, EPRI Report TR100259, 1992.
  14. A.J. Spurgin, et al., Operator reliability experiments using power plant simulators, in: Executive Summary and Technical Report (EPRI NP-6937), vols. 1 and 2, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 1990.
  15. J. Kim, J. Ha, The evaluation of accident management strategy involving operator action, Nucl. Eng. Technol. 29 (5) (1997) 368-374.
  16. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Electric Power Research Institute, An Integrated Human Event Analysis System (IDHEAS) for Nuclear Power Plant Internal Events At-Power Application, vol. 1, March 2017. NUREG-2199.
  17. B. Kirwan, L.K. Ainsworth, A Guide to Task Analysis: the Task Analysis Working Group, CRC, 1992.
  18. W. Jung, J. Kim, J. Park, Level 2 HRA: SAMG Scoping HRA Method, KAERI/TR-7651/2019, 2019.
  19. Nuclear Energy Institute, Crediting Mitigating Strategies in Risk-Informed Decision Making, NEI-16- 06, August 2016.
  20. P. Sobkowicz, M. Thelwall, K. Buckley, G. Paltoglou, A. Sobkowicz, Lognormal distributions of user post lengths in Internet discussions-a consequence of the Weber-Fechner law? EPJ Data Sci. 2 (1) (2013) 2. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds14
  21. M.L. Delignette-Muller, C. Dutang, fitdistrplus: An R package for fitting distributions, J. Stat. Software 64 (4) (2015) 1-34.
  22. R.B. D'Agostino, M.A. Stephens, Goodness-of-Fit Techniques, in: Statistics: Textbooks and Monographs, 68, Marcel Dekker, Inc, New York, 1986.
  23. S. Asmussen, L. Rojas-Nandayapa, "Asymptotics of sums of lognormal random variables with Gaussian copula" (PDF), Stat. Probab. Lett. 78 (16) (2008) 2709-2714, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2008.03.035.
  24. X. Gao, Asymptotic behavior of tail density for sum of correlated lognormal variables, Int. J. Math. Math. Sci. (2009) 1-28, https://doi.org/10.1155/2009/630857, 2009.
  25. N.B. Mehta, J. Wu, A.F. Molisch, J. Zhang, Approximating a sum of random variables with a lognormal, IEEE Trans. Wireless Commun. 6 (7) (2007) 2690-2699. https://doi.org/10.1109/TWC.2007.051000
  26. L.F. Fenton, The sum of lognormal probability distributions in scatter transmission systems, IRE Trans. Commun. Syst. CS-8 (1960) 57-67. https://doi.org/10.1109/TCOM.1960.1097606
  27. C.F. Lo, WKB approximation for the sum of two correlated lognormal random variables, Appl. Math. Sci. 7 (128) (2013) 6355-6367.
  28. S.B. Slimane, Bounds on the distribution of a sum of independent lognormal random variables, IEEE Trans. Commun. 49 (2001) 975-978. https://doi.org/10.1109/26.930627
  29. Z.I. Botev, P. L'Ecuyer, Accurate computation of the right tail of the sum of dependent lognormal variates, arXiv:1705.03196, in: 2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). 3rd-6th Dec 2017 Las Vegas, IEEE, NV, USA, 2017, ISBN 978-1-5386-3428-8, pp. 1880-1890, https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247924.
  30. Accessed December 14, 2011 R Development Core Team, R project R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Available at:, in: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, 2011 http://www.R-project.org/2011.
  31. B.P. Sangal, A.K. Biswas, The 3-parameter lognormal distribution and its applications in hydrology, Water Resour. Res. 6 (2) (1970) 505-515. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR006i002p00505
  32. E.L. Crow, K. Shimizu, Lognormal Distributions: Theory and Applications, Marcel Dekker, New York, 1988, p. 387pp.
  33. P.C. Burkner, E. Charpentier, Modeling Monotonic Effects of Ordinal Predictors in Regression Models, 2018.
  34. H.S. Blackman, D.I. Gertman, R.L. Boring, Human error quantification using performance shaping factors in the SPAR-H method, in: 52nd Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, 2008.
  35. G.W. Hannaman, A.J. Spurgin, Y.D. Lukic, Human Cognitive Reliability Model for PRA Analysis. Draft Report NUS-4531, EPRI Project RP2170-3. 1984, Electric Power and Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, 1984.
  36. G.W. Hannaman, D.H. Worledge, Some developments in human reliability analysis approaches and tools, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 22 (1-4) (1988) 235-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(88)90076-2
  37. D.J. Wakefield, G.W. Parry, A.J. Spurgin, P. Moieni, Systematic Human Action Reliability Procedure (SHARP) Enhancement Project-SHARP1 Methodology Report, Electric Power Research Institute, 1992. EPRI TR-101711.