Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Climate Resilience Assessment of Agricultural Water System Using System Dynamics Model

시스템다이내믹스 모델을 이용한 농업용수 시스템의 기후 복원력 평가

  • Choi, Eunhyuk (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation)
  • Received : 2021.03.18
  • Accepted : 2021.06.11
  • Published : 2021.07.31
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Abstract

This study aims at testing a hypothesis that the resilience of agricultural water systems is characterized by trade-offs and synergies of effects from climate and socioeconomic change. To achieve this, an Agricultural Water System Climate Resilience Assessment (ACRA) framework is established to evaluate comprehensive resilience of an agricultural water system to the combined impacts of the climate and socioeconomic changes with a case study in South Korea. Understanding dynamic behaviors of the agricultural water systems under climate and socioeconomic drivers is not straightforward because the system structure includes complex interactions with multiple feedbacks across components in water and agriculture sectors and climate and socioeconomic factors, which has not been well addressed in the existing decision support models. No consideration of the complex interactions with feedbacks in a decision making process may lead to counterintuitive and untoward evaluation of the coupled impacts of the climate and socioeconomic changes on the system performance. In this regard, the ACRA framework employs a System Dynamics (SD) approach that has been widely used to understand dynamics of the complex systems with the feedback interactions. In the ACRA framework applied to the case study in South Korea, the SD model works along with HOMWRS simulation. The ACRA framework will help to explore resilience-based strategies with infrastructure investment and management options for agricultural water systems.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 결과물은 농림축산식품부의 재원으로 농림식품기술기획평가원의 농업기반 및 재해대응 기술개발 사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었음 (121032-3).

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