Ocean and Polar Research

Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology (한국해양과학기술원)
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Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northwestern Pacific simulated by an Ocean Mid-range Prediction System (OMIDAS): Seasonal Difference

북서태평양 중기해양예측모형(OMIDAS) 해면수온 예측성능: 계절적인 차이

  • Jung, Heeseok (Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology) ;
  • Kim, Yong Sun (Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology) ;
  • Shin, Ho-Jeong (Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University) ;
  • Jang, Chan Joo (Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology)
  • 정희석 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환.기후연구센터) ;
  • 김용선 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환.기후연구센터) ;
  • 신호정 (연세대학교 비가역적기후변화연구센터) ;
  • 장찬주 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환.기후연구센터)
  • Received : 2020.08.08
  • Accepted : 2021.06.01
  • Published : 2021.06.30
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Abstract

Changes in a marine environment have a broad socioeconomic implication on fisheries and their relevant industries so that there has been a growing demand for the medium-range (months to years) prediction of the marine environment Using a medium-range ocean prediction model (Ocean Mid-range prediction System, OMIDAS) for the northwest Pacific, this study attempted to assess seasonal difference in the mid-range predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST), focusing on the Korea seas characterized as a complex marine system. A three-month re-forecast experiment was conducted for each of the four seasons in 2016 starting from January, forced with Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) forecast data. The assessment using relative root-mean-square-error was taken for the last month SST of each experiment. Compared to the CFSv2, the OMIDAS revealed a better prediction skill for the Korea seas SST, particularly in the Yellow sea mainly due to a more realistic representation of the topography and current systems. Seasonally, the OMIDAS showed better predictability in the warm seasons (spring and summer) than in the cold seasons (fall and winter), suggesting seasonal dependency in predictability of the Korea seas. In addition, the mid-range predictability for the Korea seas significantly varies depending on regions: the predictability was higher in the East Sea than in the Yellow Sea. The improvement in the seasonal predictability for the Korea seas by OMIDAS highlights the importance of a regional ocean modeling system for a medium-range marine prediction.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 2021년 해양수산부의 재원으로 해양수산과학기술진흥원(해양수치모델링과 지능정보기술을 활용한 해양예측 정확도 향상 연구)과 한국연구재단 기초연구사업(한국해 해양열파 특성 및 변동성, NRF-2020R1F1A1072447), 그리고 한중해양과학기술협력 공동위원회 협력사업(20082002)의 지원을 받아 수행되었습니다.

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