Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

한국수산과학회 (The Korean Society of Fisheries and Aquatic Science)
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A Bayesian state-space production model for Korean chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) stock

  • Jung, Yuri (College of Fisheries Sciences, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Seo, Young Il (East Sea Fisheries Research Institute, National Institute of Fisheries Science) ;
  • Hyun, Saang-Yoon (College of Fisheries Sciences, Pukyong National University)
  • 투고 : 2021.02.03
  • 심사 : 2021.03.24
  • 발행 : 2021.04.30
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초록

The main purpose of this study is to fit catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data about Korea chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) stock with a state-space production (SSP) model, and to provide stock assessment results. We chose a surplus production model for the chub mackerel data, namely annual yield and CPUE. Then we employed a state-space layer for a production model to consider two sources of variability arising from unmodelled factors (process error) and noise in the data (observation error). We implemented the model via script software ADMB-RE because it reduces the computational cost of high-dimensional integration and provides Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, which is required for Bayesian approaches. To stabilize the numerical optimization, we considered prior distributions for model parameters. Applying the SSP model to data collected from commercial fisheries from 1999 to 2017, we estimated model parameters and management references, as well as uncertainties for the estimates. We also applied various production models and showed parameter estimates and goodness of fit statistics to compare the model performance. This study presents two significant findings. First, we concluded that the stock has been overexploited in terms of harvest rate from 1999 to 2017. Second, we suggest a SSP model for the smallest goodness of fit statistics among several production models, especially for fitting CPUE data with fluctuations.

키워드

과제정보

The National Institute of Fisheries Science provided the CPUE data, and Statistics Korea offered fishery yield data. Handling editor, Dr. Yong-Woo Lee's advice improved our manuscript.

참고문헌

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