한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제54권6호
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  • Pages.395-405
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  • 2021
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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지자체 농업가뭄 예·경보를 위한 미계측 저수지의 유입량 추정 및 평가

A study on the estimation and evaluation of ungauged reservoir inflow for local government's agricultural drought forecasting and warning

  • 최정렬 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공) ;
  • 윤현철 (국립재난안전연구원 방재연구실) ;
  • 원창희 (국립재난안전연구원 방재연구실) ;
  • 이병현 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공) ;
  • 김병식 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공)
  • Choi, Jung-Ryel (Department of Urban Environmental Disaster Management, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol (Disaster Prevention Research Division, National Disaster Management Research Institute) ;
  • Won, Chang-Hee (Disaster Prevention Research Division, National Disaster Management Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Byung-Hyun (Department of Urban Environmental Disaster Management, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Byung-Sik (Department of Urban Environmental Disaster Management, Kangwon National University)
  • 투고 : 2021.04.19
  • 심사 : 2021.05.02
  • 발행 : 2021.06.30
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초록

현재 관계부처 합동 농업가뭄 예·경보시 한국농어촌공사 관리 저수지의 관측정보만을 활용하고 있어 시군 단위 가뭄 분석 결과와 지자체 체감가뭄과의 괴리가 발생하고 있다. 지자체 단위 체감가뭄 예·경보를 위해서는 공간적으로 세밀하고 국지적인 저수지 정보가 필요하며, 이를 위해서는 전국적으로 분포된 지자체 관리 저수지 정보의 활용이 필요하다. 그러나 전국에 분포하고 있는 전체 지자체 관리 저수지에 수위 및 유량 관측 시설을 설치하는 것은 운영 및 비용 측면에서 합리적이지 않으므로 효율적인 정보 생성 방안이 필요하다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 관측자료가 존재하는 저수지 유역을 대상으로 장기유출 모형인 TANK 모형의 매개변수를 검·보정하고, 유역특성인자를 이용하여 그룹화 한 후 그룹화된 TANK 모형의 매개변수를 미계측 지자체 저수지 유역에 적용하여 유입량 예측 및 평가를 하였다. 평가 결과 논, 경사를 이용한 그룹의 결정계수 평균이 0.63, NSE가 0.62로, 유역면적과 유효저수량 인자를 이용했을 때(결정계수 0.49, NSE 0.47) 보다 좋은 결과를 보여주었으며, 미계측 지자체 관리 저수지 정보의 활용 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다.

When issuing forecasts and alerts for agricultural drought, the relevant ministries only rely on the observation data from the reservoirs managed by the Korea Rural Community Corporation, which creates gaps between the drought analysis results at the local (si/gun) governments and the droughts actually experienced by local residents. Closing these gaps requires detailed local geoinformation on reservoirs, which in turn requires the information on reservoirs managed by local governments across Korea. However, installing water level and flow measurement equipment at all of the reservoirs would not be reasonable in terms of operation and cost effectiveness, and an alternate approach is required to efficiently generate information. In light of the above, this study validates and calibrates the parameters of the TANK model for reservoir basins, divided them into groups based on the characteristics of different basins, and applies the grouped parameters to unmeasured local government reservoirs to estimate and assess inflow. The findings show that the average determinant coefficient and the NSE of the group using rice paddies and inclinations are 0.63 and 0.62, respectively, indicating better results compared with the basin area and effective storage factors (determinant coefficient: 0.49, NSE: 0.47). The findings indicate the possibility of utilizing the information regarding unmeasured reservoirs managed by local governments.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 행정안전부 극한재난대응기반기술개발 사업의 연구비 지원(2019-MOIS31-010)에 의해 수행되었습니다.

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