Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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A three-dimensional patent evaluation model that considers the factors for calculating the internal and external value of a patent: Arrhenius chemical reaction kinetics-based patent lifespan prediction

특허의 내적.외적 가치산정요인을 고려한 입체적 특허평가모델: 아레니우스 화학반응속도론 기반의 특허수명예측

  • Choi, Yong Muk (Department of Graduate School of Technology & Innovation Management, Hanyang University) ;
  • LEE, JAEWON (Department of IT Development & Support, Korea Institute of Patent Information) ;
  • Cho, Daemyeong (Department of Graduate School of Technology & Innovation Management, Hanyang University)
  • 최용묵 (한양대학교 기술경영전문대학원) ;
  • 이재원 (한국특허정보원) ;
  • 조대명 (한양대학교 기술경영전문대학원)
  • Received : 2021.03.06
  • Accepted : 2021.06.20
  • Published : 2021.06.28
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Abstract

This study is a new evaluation using the Arrhenius equation, which is known as the chemical reaction rate estimation equation, to evaluate the intrinsic and extrinsic value elements of patents as a model. The performance of the evaluation model was superior to the SVM, Logistic reg. and ANN models that were used as patent evaluation models in prior studies. In addition, there was a strong correlation between the predicted lifespan of the patent and the actual lifespan of the patent. These evaluation models may be used for evaluation purposes only, or if an evaluation is required, including a commercialization entity or technical characteristics.

특허수명은 특허가치를 평가하는 척도로 사용되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 특허수명을 예측하여 개별특허의 가치를 평가함에 있어, 특허의 내적가치요소와 외적가치요소를 하나의 모델로 평가하기 위하여 화학반응속도 추정식으로 널리 알려진 아레니우스식을 사용한 새로운 평가모델을 제시하였다. 한국의 소멸된 특허데이터를 활용하여 평가모델의 성능을 검증하였으며, 선행연구에서 특허평가모델로 사용되었던 SVM, Logistic reg., ANN 모델과 성능을 비교하였다. 결과적으로, 제안한 평가모델이 다른 모델 보다 정확도가 높았으며, 특허권자의 특성을 고려한 상대체감비용지수 반영 시 여러 평가모델에서 정확도가 상승하는 경향을 보였다. 또한, 특허의 예측수명등급과 특허의 실제수명과는 강한 상관관계가 있었다. 이러한 평가모델은 대량의 특허를 객관적으로 신속하게 평가할 수 있으며 특허의 유지여부에 대한 의사결정 혹은 기술거래나 평가에 활용할 수 있다. 특히, 평가목적에 따라 특허만을 평가하거나 사업화주체나 기술적 특성을 고려한 평가가 필요한 경우에 각각 사용될 수 있다.

Keywords

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