정보처리학회논문지:소프트웨어 및 데이터공학 (KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering)

  • 제10권5호
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  • Pages.169-178
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  • 2021
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  • 2287-5905(pISSN)
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  • 2734-0503(eISSN)
한국정보처리학회 (Korea Information Processing Society)
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공유자전거 시스템의 이용 예측을 위한 K-Means 기반의 군집 알고리즘

A K-Means-Based Clustering Algorithm for Traffic Prediction in a Bike-Sharing System

  • 김경옥 (서울과학기술대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 이창환 (서울과학기술대학교 데이터사이언스학과)
  • 투고 : 2020.10.30
  • 심사 : 2021.02.23
  • 발행 : 2021.05.31
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⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

최근 들어 공유자전거 시스템은 대중교통 이용이 어렵거나 불가능한 마지막 목적지까지의 거리인 "라스트 마일"을 해소하는 방안으로 주목받고 있다. 공유자전거 시스템에서는 자전거의 대여와 반납의 불균형으로 인해서 사용자가 원하는 시간에 원하는 대여소에서 자전거를 빌리거나 반납할 수 있는 문제가 자주 발생한다. 이에 자전거 재배치는 공유자전거 시스템을 효율적으로 운영하는데 매우 중요한 이슈이다. 자전거 재배치를 효율적이고 효과적으로 진행하기 위해서는 무엇보다 정확한 수요 예측이 이뤄져야 한다. 최근에는 대여소의 수요를 보다 정확하게 예측하기 위해 군집 기반의 수요 예측 모델을 활용하는 방법이 개발되고 있는데, 여기서는 군집 분석 단계가 매우 중요하다. 이 연구에서는 비결정적이고 수렴이 어려운 기존의 공유자전거 수요 예측을 위한 군집 방법의 단점을 극복하는 k-means 기반의 군집 알고리즘을 제안한다. 이 방법은 초기 중심점 방법을 활용하기 때문에 매번 동일한 결과를 얻을 수 있으며, 대여소의 시간별 반납/대여 비중을 이용하여 기존 방법과는 달리 이전 단계의 군집 결과를 필요로 하지 않아 반복해서 군집 분석을 수행할 필요가 없어 빠른 군집 분석이 가능한 장점이 있다.

Recently, a bike-sharing system (BSS) has become popular as a convenient "last mile" transportation. Rebalancing of bikes is a critical issue to manage BSS because the rents and returns of bikes are not balanced by stations and periods. For efficient and effective rebalancing, accurate traffic prediction is important. Recently, cluster-based traffic prediction has been utilized to enhance the accuracy of prediction at the station-level and the clustering step is very important in this approach. In this paper, we propose a k-means based clustering algorithm that overcomes the drawbacks of the existing clustering methods for BSS; indeterministic and hardly converged. By employing the centroid initialization and using the temporal proportion of the rents and returns of stations as an input for clustering, the proposed algorithm can be deterministic and fast.

키워드

과제정보

이 논문은 정부(과학기술정보통신부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(No. 2020R1F1A1054496).

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