Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science (한국초지조사료학회지)

The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science (한국초지조사료학회)
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Assessment of Contribution of Climate and Soil Factors on Alfalfa Yield by Yield Prediction Model

수량예측모델을 통한 Alfalfa 수량에 영향을 미치는 기후요인 및 토양요인의 기여도 평가

  • Kim, Ji Yung (College of Animal Life Sciences, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Moon Ju (Institute of Animal Resources, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Jo, Hyun Wook (College of Animal Life Sciences, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Bae Hun (National Institute of Animal Science, RDA) ;
  • Jo, Mu Hwan (College of Animal Life Sciences, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Byong Wan (College of Animal Life Sciences, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Sung, Kyung Il (College of Animal Life Sciences, Kangwon National University)
  • 김지융 (강원대학교, 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 김문주 (강원대학교, 동물자원공동연구소) ;
  • 조현욱 (강원대학교, 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 이배훈 (농촌진흥청, 국립축산과학원) ;
  • 조무환 (강원대학교, 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 김병완 (강원대학교, 동물생명과학대학) ;
  • 성경일 (강원대학교, 동물생명과학대학)
  • Received : 2021.03.03
  • Accepted : 2021.03.24
  • Published : 2021.03.31
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to access the effect of climate and soil factors on alfalfa dry matter yield (DMY) by the contribution through constructing the yield prediction model in a general linear model considering climate and soil physical variables. The processes of constructing the yield prediction model for alfalfa was performed in sequence of data collection of alfalfa yield, meteorological and soil, preparation, statistical analysis, and model construction. The alfalfa yield prediction model used a multiple regression analysis to select the climate variables which are quantitative data and a general linear model considering the selected climate variables and soil physical variables which are qualitative data. As a result, the growth degree days(GDD) and growing days(GD), and the clay content(CC) were selected as the climate and soil physical variables that affect alfalfa DMY, respectively. The contributions of climate and soil factors affecting alfalfa DMY were 32% (GDD, 21%, GD 11%) and 63%, respectively. Therefore, this study indicates that the soil factor more contributes to alfalfa DMY than climate factor. However, for examming the correct contribution, the factors such as other climate and soil factors, and the cultivation technology factors which were not treated in this study should be considered as a factor in the model for future study.

본 연구는 기후요인과 토양요인이 알팔파 건물수량에 어느 정도 영향을 미치는지를 기여도로 평가할 목적으로, 기상변수와 토양물리성변수를 고려하여 일반선형모형으로 수량예측모델을 구축하였다. 알팔파 수량예측모델 구축과정은 알팔파, 기상 및 토양자료수집, 가공, 통계분석 및 모델구축 순이었다. 수량예측모델은 알팔파와 양적자료인 기상변수를 선택하기 위한 다중회귀분석과 질적자료인 토양물리성변수도 고려하기 위해서 일반선형모형을 사용하였다. 그 결과 DMY에 영향을 미치는 기상변수는 적산온도와 생육일수이었으며, 토양물리성변수는 점토함량이 선택되었다. DMY에 영향을 미치는 변수별 기여도는 점토함량(63%), 적산온도(21%) 및 생육일수(11%)순 이었으며 요인별 기여도는 기후요인(적산온도, 21%와 생육일수, 11%)이 32%, 토양요인(점토함량)이 63%로 나타나 토양요인이 기후요인보다 알팔파 건물수량에 더 기여하는 것으로 평가하였다. 본 연구에서 이용한 알팔파 자료는 토성, 시비수준 및 품종이 제한되어 있어 앞으로 이들 요인을 고려한 다양한 조건의 재배실험을 통하여 보다 많은 자료축적이 요구된다.

Keywords

References

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