Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management (디지털산업정보학회논문지)

Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management (디지털산업정보학회)
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A Study on the Development of University Students Dropout Prediction Model Using Ensemble Technique

앙상블 기법을 활용한 대학생 중도탈락 예측 모형 개발

  • 박상성 (청주대학교 빅데이터통계학과)
  • Received : 2021.02.27
  • Accepted : 2021.03.17
  • Published : 2021.03.30
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Abstract

The number of freshmen at universities is decreasing due to the recent decline in the school-age population, and the survival of many universities is threatened. To overcome this situation, universities are seeking ways to use big data within the school to improve the quality of education. A study on the prediction of dropout students is a representative case of using big data in universities. The dropout prediction can prepare a systematic management plan by identifying students who will drop out of school due to reasons such as dropout or expulsion. In the case of actual on-campus data, a large number of missing values are included because it is collected and managed by various departments. For this reason, it is necessary to construct a model by effectively reflecting the missing values. In this study, we propose a university student dropout prediction model based on eXtreme Gradient Boost that can be applied to data with many missing values and shows high performance. In order to examine the practical applicability of the proposed model, an experiment was performed using data from C University in Chungbuk. As a result of the experiment, the prediction performance of the proposed model was found to be excellent. The management strategy of dropout students can be established through the prediction results of the model proposed in this paper.

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References

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