한국산림과학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science)

한국산림과학회 (Korean Society of Forest Science)
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설악산 국립공원 지역 토석류 발생가능성 평가 기법의 개발

Development of a Prediction Technique for Debris Flow Susceptibility in the Seoraksan National Park, Korea

  • 이성재 (서울대학교 학술림) ;
  • 김길원 (경상대학교 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 정원옥 (국립공원관리공단 국립공원연구원) ;
  • 강원석 (국립산림과학원 산림보전연구부) ;
  • 이은재 (국립산림과학원 산림기술경영연구소)
  • Lee, Sung-Jae (University Forests of Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Gil Won (Institute of Agriculture Life Science, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Jeong, Won-Ok (Korea National Park Research Institute, Korea National Park Service) ;
  • Kang, Won-Seok (Department of Forest Conservation, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Lee, Eun-Jai (Technology and Management Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science)
  • 투고 : 2020.05.18
  • 심사 : 2021.01.15
  • 발행 : 2021.03.31
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초록

최근의 기후변화는 산지토사재해의 발생을 가속시키고 있다. 산지토사재해 중 토석류는 전파길이가 길고 매우 빠른 거동 특성을 갖기 때문에 매우 위협적으로 인식된다. 본 연구는 설악산 국립공원내 토석류 발생지 263개소를 대상으로 발생 길이(m)에 미치는 영향인자를 구명하고, 수량화이론(I)을 사용하여 발생 길이에 대한 각 산림환경 인자의 기여도 분석을 하여 예방적인 측면에서 국립공원내 토석류 발생 가능성지역에 대한 예측기법을 개발하였다. 각 산림환경 인자의 Range를 추정한 결과, 종단사면(0.9676)이 가장 높게 나타나 설악산 국립공원의 토석류 발생 가능성에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 추정되었으며, 다음으로는 횡단사면(0.6876), 고도(0.2356), 사면경사(0.1590), 방위(0.1364) 순으로 나타났다. 설악산 국립공원 산악지 토석류 발생 발생가능성 판정표를 기준으로 5개의 산림환경 인자의 category별 점수를 계산한 추정치 범위는 0점에서 2.1864점 사이에 분포하고 있으며, 중앙값은 1.0932점으로 토석류 발생가능성을 예측을 작성한 결과 I등급은 1.6399 이상, II등급 1.0932~1.6398, III등급 0.5466~1.0931, IV등급 0.5465 이하로 나타나 1등급, 2등급에서 토석류 발생 비율이 86.3%로서 높은 적중률을 보였다.

Recently, climate change has gradually accelerated the occurrence of landslides. Among the various effects caused by landslides,debris flow is recognized as particularly threatening because of its high speed and propagating distance. In this study, the impacts of various factors were analyzed using quantification theory(I) for the prediction of debris flow hazard soil volume in Seoraksan National Park, Korea. According to the range using the stepwise regression analysis, the order of impact factors was as follows: vertical slope (0.9676), cross slope (0.6876), altitude (0.2356), slope gradient (0.1590), and aspect (0.1364). The extent of the normalized score using the five-factor categories was 0 to 2.1864, with the median score being 1.0932. The prediction criteria for debris flow occurrence based on the normalized score were divided into four grades: class I, >1.6399; class II, 1.0932-1.6398; class III, 0.5466-1.0931; and class IV, <0.5465. Predictions of debris flow occurrence appeared to be relatively accurate (86.3%) for classes I and II. Therefore, the prediction criteria for debris flow will be useful for judging the dangerousness of slopes.

키워드

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