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Trend Analysis of Earthquake Researches in the World

전세계의 지진 연구의 추세 분석

  • Yun, Sul-Min (BK21 School of Earth and Environmental Systems, Department of Geological Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Hamm, Se-Yeong (Department of Geological Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Jeon, Hang-Tak (Department of Geological Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Cheong, Jae-Yeol (Korea Radioactive Waste Agency)
  • 윤설민 (부산대학교 BK21지구환경시스템 교육연구단 지질환경과학과) ;
  • 함세영 (부산대학교 지질환경과학과) ;
  • 전항탁 (부산대학교 지질환경과학과) ;
  • 정재열 (한국원자력환경공단)
  • Received : 2021.02.04
  • Accepted : 2021.02.19
  • Published : 2021.02.28
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Abstract

In this study, temporal trend of researches in earthquake with groundwater level, water quality, radon, remote sensing, electrical resistivity, gravity, and geomagnetism was searched from 2001 to 2020, using the journals indexed in Web of Science, and the number of articles published in international journals was counted in relation to the occurrences of earthquakes (≥Mw 5.0, ≥Mw 6.0, ≥Mw 7.0, ≥Mw 8.0, and ≥Mw 9.0). The number of articles shows an increasing trend over the studied period. This is explained by that studies on earthquake precursor and seismic monitoring becomes active in various fields with integrated data analysis through the development of remote sensing technology, progress of measurement equipment, and big data. According to Mann-Kendall and Sen's tests, gravity-related articles exhibit an increasing trend of 1.30 articles/yr, radon-related articles (0.60 articles/yr), groundwater-related articles (0.70 articles/yr), electrical resistivity-related articles (0.25 articles/yr), and remote-sensing-related articles (0.67 articles/yr). By cross-correlation analysis of the number of articles in each field with removing trend effect and the number of earthquakes of ≥Mw 5.0, ≥Mw 6.0, ≥Mw 7.0, ≥Mw 8.0, and ≥Mw 9.0, radon and remote sensing fields exhibit a high cross-correlation with a delay time of one year. In addition, large-scale earthquakes such as the 2004 and 2005 Sumatra earthquake, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the 2010 Chile earthquake are estimated to be related with the increase in the number of articles in the corresponding periods.

본 연구에서는 2001년부터 2020년까지 지진과 관련된 지하수위, 수질, 라돈, 원격탐사, 전기비저항, 중력, 지자기 분야의 세계적으로 학술지에 게재된 논문 편수를 Web of Science에서 검색하여 그 경향성을 분석하였다. 그리고 논문 편수와 Mw 5.0 이상, Mw 6.0 이상, Mw 7.0 이상, Mw 8.0 이상, Mw 9.0 이상 지진 발생 건수를 비교 분석하였다. 지진과 관련한 중력, 라돈, 지하수(지하수위, 수질), 전기비저항, 지자기분야 논문 편수는 장기적으로 증가하는 추세를 보인다. 이는 원격탐사 기술의 발달, 측정 장비의 고도화, 빅데이터 분석 등을 통한 종합적인 자료 해석이 가능해지면서 여러 분야에서 지진 전조 및 지진 현상 연구가 활발해지고 있기 때문이다. Mann-Kendall과 Sen 추세 검정에 의하면, 중력 관련 논문의 경우 1.30편/년의 증가추세를 보이고, 라돈 0.60편/년, 지하수 0.70편/년, 전기비저항 0.25편/년, 원격탐사 0.67편/년의 증가추세를 보인다. Mw 5.0 이상, Mw 6.0 이상, Mw 7.0 이상, Mw 8.0 이상, Mw 9.0 이상의 지진발생 건수와 경향성을 제거한 분야별 논문 편수 간의 교차상관분석에 의하면, 라돈과 원격탐사 분야의 교차상관성이 높으며, 지연시간은 1년이다. 또한 2004년과 2005년 수마트라 지진, 2008년 쓰촨성 지진, 2010년 아이티 지진, 2010 칠레 지진 등의 큰 규모의 지진 발생이 논문 편수 증가와 관련되는 것으로 추정된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 과학기술정보통신부의 한국연구재단 중견연구사업(No. NRF-2020R1A2B5B02002198)과 행정안전부의 지진방재분야 전문인력 양성사업의 지원으로 수행되었으며, 이에 감사드립니다.

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