Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Spatial Analysis of Wind Trajectory Prediction According to the Input Settings of HYSPLIT Model

HYSPLIT 모형 입력설정에 따른 바람 이동경로 예측 결과 공간 분석

  • Kim, Kwang Soo (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Bioresources, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Seung-Jae (National Center for AgroMeteorology) ;
  • Park, Jin Yu (Research Institute Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • 김광수 (서울대학교 농림생물자원학부) ;
  • 이승재 (국가농림기상센터) ;
  • 박진유 (서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원)
  • Received : 2021.11.16
  • Accepted : 2021.12.29
  • Published : 2021.12.30
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Abstract

Airborne-pests can be introduced into Korea from overseas areas by wind, which can cause considerable damage to major crops. Meteorological models have been used to estimate the wind trajectories of airborne insects. The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of input settings on the prediction of areas where airborne pests arrive by wind. The wind trajectories were predicted using the HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. The HYSPLIT model was used to track the wind dispersal path of particles under the assumption that brown plant hopper (Nilaparvata lugens) was introduced into Korea from sites where the pest was reported in China. Meteorological input data including instantaneous and average wind speed were generated using meso-scale numerical weather model outputs for the domain where China, Korea, and Japan were included. In addition, the calculation time intervals were set to 1, 30, and 60 minutes for the wind trajectory calculation during early June in 2019 and 2020. It was found that the use of instantaneous and average wind speed data resulted in a considerably large difference between the arrival areas of airborne pests. In contrast, the spatial distribution of arrival areas had a relatively high degree of similarity when the time intervals were set to be 1 minute. Furthermore, these dispersal patterns predicted using the instantaneous wind speed were similar to the regions where the given pest was observed in Korea. These results suggest that the impact assessment of input settings on wind trajectory prediction would be needed to improve the reliability of an approach to predict regions where airborne-pest could be introduced.

바람에 의해 해외지역에서 국내로 유입되는 비래해충들은 주요 작물에 상당한 피해를 초래할 수 있다. 바람에 의한 비래해충의 이동 경로를 추정하기 위해 기상 모형들이 사용되는데, 본 연구에서는 비래해충이 도달할 수 있는 지역을 예측할 때 입력설정이 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 벼멸구가 중국에서 국내로 유입된다는 가정하에 입자의 바람이동 경로를 추적하기 위해 개발된 HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) 모형을 사용하여 바람의 이동경로를 예측하였다. 중국, 한국 및 일본이 포함된 중규모 수치기상모형 자료를 사용하여 순간 및 평균 풍속자료가 포함된 기상입력자료를 생성하였다. 또한, 이동 경로 계산을 위해 계산 시간 간격을 1, 30, 60분으로 설정하였다. 중국에서 벼멸구가 관측된 지점에서 2019년과 2021년 6월 상순 기간 동안 바람의 이동 경로를 계산한 결과, 순간 풍속과 평균 풍속자료를 사용함에 따라 비래해충 도달지점에 큰 차이가 나타났다. 계산 시간에 따른 이동 경로 결과값들의 공간적 분포는 상대적으로 유사도가 높았으며, 순간풍속을 사용한 경우 벼멸구 관측지역과 비교적 유사한 경향이 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 바람 경로를 추적하여 비래해충 도착지점을 추정할 때 사용되는 입력자료의 특성을 파악하고 이들로부터 발생하는 불확도에 대한 고려가 필요함을 시사한다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 농촌진흥청 공동연구사업(과제번호: PJ015620022021)의 지원으로 수행되었음

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