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Does Urbanization Affect Bilateral Trade?

양국의 도시화가 무역에 미치는 영향: 중력 모형의 활용

  • EunJung Lim (Center for Industrial Policy Research, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade) ;
  • Sunghee Jun (Department of International Trade, Sunchon National University)
  • 임은정 (산업연구원 산업정책연구본부) ;
  • 전성희 (순천대학교 사회과학대학 무역학전공)
  • Received : 2020.06.04
  • Accepted : 2020.06.28
  • Published : 2020.06.30

Abstract

In this paper we explore the two analyses to know the urbanization effect on trade. First, the granger causality test to examine the relationship between trade and urbanization. The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful for forecasting another. The results indicated that the existence of a bidirectional causality running from trade to urbanization when six lags were applied. When eight lags were applied, we found unidirectional causality running from urbanization to trade. Second, gravity models were used to investigate the urbanization effect on trade. The production cost and specification are affected by the economies of scale, and the economies of scale increased as the greater geographically agglomeration. However, the gravity model to explain the bilateral trade flows ignores the urbanization variables. Therefore we added the urbanization variable represented as the geographically agglomeration into gravity model. The results show that the degree of urbanization of both countries has statistically positive effect on trade (export and import) and the bigger coefficients of trade partner's urbanization. The reason is that the trade share of industrial supplies, intermediate goods and capital goods is much higher than finished consumer goods. The urbanization is more important the improved the efficiency of production than demand market.

Keywords

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