The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회 논문지)

The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회)
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An Analysis of Change in Traffic Demand with Coronavirus Disease 2019

코로나바이러스감염증-19로 인한 교통수요 변화 분석

  • Lim, Sung Han (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology)
  • 임성한 (한국건설기술연구원 건설시험인증본부)
  • Received : 2020.07.01
  • Accepted : 2020.08.26
  • Published : 2020.10.31
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Abstract

This study examined the impact of COVID-19 on traffic demand (Average Daily Traffic : ADT) by analyzing the available data on highway traffic volume and the spread of COVID-19 cases in Korea. This study used the data from 228 permanent traffic counts (PTCs) on highways from January to May of 2019 and 2020 to analyze the change in ADT. The first cases of infection in Korea occurred on January 20, 2020, and the maximum daily number of infections was 909 on February 29. On April 30, 2020, the daily number of infections decreased to four. The ADT decreased by 3.3% due to the impact of COVID-19. Considering that the traffic volume has increased 2.3% annually over the past decade, the actual decrease in ADT due to the COVID-19 is estimated to be 5.6% (3.3% + 2.3%). The ADT for weekends decreased significantly, compared to during the week. An analysis of the changes in ADT according to the road type revealed decreases in the following: urban roads -4.6%, rural roads -3.2%, and recreational roads -0.7%. Urban roads decreased the most, and tourist roads decreased the least.

본 연구는 코로나19가 도로 교통수요(평균 일교통량)에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 코로나19로 인한 평균 일교통량 변화를 분석하기 위해 2019년과 2020년 1~5월까지의 상시 교통량 조사자료를 이용하였다. 국내 첫 감염자가 2020년 1월 20일에 발생하였고, 2월 29일에 1일 최대 감염자수인 909명을 기록하였으며, 4월 30일 4명으로 감소하였기 때문이다. 코로나19 발생으로 인해 평균 일교통량은 전년 동기 대비 3.3% 감소한 것으로 분석된다. 최근 10년 동안 교통량이 연평균 2.3% 증가한 점을 고려할 때, 이번 코로나로 인한 실질적인 평균 일교통량 감소는 5.6%(3.3% + 2.3%)로 추정된다. 주중보다는 주말의 평균 일교통량이 상대적으로 크게 감소한 것으로 나타난다. 도로 유형별 변화를 분석해 보면, 도시부 도로 -4.6%, 지방부 도로 -3.2%, 관광부 도로 -0.7%로 분석된다. 도시부 도로가 가장 크게 감소하였으며, 관광부 도로가 가장 적게 감소한 것으로 분석된다.

Keywords

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