한국ITS학회 논문지 (The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems)

  • 제19권5호
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  • Pages.1-14
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  • 2020
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  • 1738-0774(pISSN)
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  • 2384-1729(eISSN)
한국ITS학회 (The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems)
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다항로짓모형을 이용한 고속도로 다중추돌사고 특성 분석

An Analysis of Multiple-Vehicle Accidents on Freeways Using Multinomial Logit Model

  • 전현명 (한국건설기술연구원 건설시험인증본부) ;
  • 김진희 (연세대학교 도시공학과)
  • Jeon, Hyeonmyeong (Construction Test & Certification Department, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Kim, Jinhee (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • 투고 : 2020.07.01
  • 심사 : 2020.08.26
  • 발행 : 2020.10.31
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초록

본 연구는 고속도로 교통사고의 사고차량대수에 따른 요인의 영향을 분석하기 위해 다항로짓모형을 이용하여 연구를 수행하였다. 기존의 교통사고 심각도 연구에서는 사고차량대수에 대한 분석이 미흡하였다. 그러나 다중추돌사고는 인명피해 사고로 이어질 가능성이 높고, 사고 지속시간과 사고처리를 위한 사회적 비용이 크기 때문에, 다중추돌사고에 영향을 미치는 요인을 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 사고차량대수를 사고의 요인이 아닌 사고의 결과로 해석하고, 이에 미치는 사고요인별 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 야간사고와 고속도로 본선, 터널, 교량에서 발생한 사고, 운전자과실, 도로장애물, 노면문제로 인한 사고, 내리막 경사, 중차량 연관 사고가 다중추돌사고로 이어질 가능성이 높은 것으로 분석되었다.

The aim of this study is to analyze effects of factors on the number of vehicles involved in traffic accidents on freeway sections. In previous studies about traffic accident severity, the analysis of accidents involving multiple vehicles was insufficient. However, multiple-vehicle accidents are likely to cause casualties and are the main reasons increasing accident duration and social costs. In this study, the number of vehicles involved in an accident was interpreted as the result of the accident, not as the cause of the accident, and the impacts of each accident factor were analyzed using a multinomial logit model. The results indicate that multiple-vehicle accidents are mainly related to following factors: nighttime, driver's faults, obstacles on the road, a downhill slope, heavy vehicles, and freeway mainline sections including tunnels and bridges.

키워드

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