Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Evaluating Changes and Uncertainty of Nitrogen Load from Rice Paddy according to the Climate Change Scenario Multi-Model Ensemble

기후변화시나리오 다중모형 앙상블에 따른 논 질소 유출 부하량 변동 및 불확실성 평가

  • Choi, Soon-Kun (Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Jeong, Jaehak (AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University) ;
  • Yeob, So-Jin (Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Minwook (Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Jin Ho (Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Min-Kyeong (Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences)
  • Received : 2020.06.15
  • Accepted : 2020.09.08
  • Published : 2020.09.30
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Abstract

Rice paddy accounts for approximately 52.5% of all farmlands in South Korea, and it is closely related to the water environment. Climate change is expected to affect not only agricultural productivity also the water and the nutrient circulation. Therefore this study was aimed to evaluate changes of nitrogen load from rice paddy considering climate change scenario uncertainty. APEX-Paddy model which reflect rice paddy environment by modifying APEX (Agricultural Policy and Environmental eXtender) model was used. Using the AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) offered by the APEC Climate Center, bias correction was conducted for 9 GCMs using non-parametric quantile mapping. Bias corrected climate change scenarios were applied to the APEX-Paddy model. The changes and uncertainty in runoff and nitrogen load were evaluated using multi-model ensemble. Paddy runoff showed a change of 23.1% for RCP4.5 scenario and 45.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared the 2085s (2071 to 2100) against the base period (1976 to 2005). The nitrogen load was found to be increased as 43.9% for RCP4.5 scenario and 76.0% for RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty analysis showed that the annual standard deviation of nitrogen loads increased in the future, and the maximum entropy indicated an increasing tendency. And Duncan's analysis showed significant differences among GCMs as the future progressed. The result of this study seems to be used as a basis for mid- and long-term policies for water resources and water system environment considering climate change.

Keywords

References

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