Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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Analysis of Air-water Temperature Elasticity Taking into Account the Confidence Interval in Major Tributary of Nakdong River

낙동강 주요 지류의 신뢰구간을 고려한 기온-수온 탄성도 분석

  • Received : 2020.06.15
  • Accepted : 2020.06.30
  • Published : 2020.08.31
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Abstract

In this study, the elasticity was calculated and sensitivity analysis was performed using air-water temperature data of the major tributaries of the Nakdong River. We developed a nonparametric elasticity analysis technique capable of estimating the confidence interval for elasticity and verifying the hypothesis, and examined its applicability compared to the existing method using the median value. It is analyzed that the elasticity of winter is low and the elasticity of summer and autumn is high, so that the fluctuation of water temperature and water quality according to the fluctuation of air temperature is large. The spatial elasticity tends to be low in the Geumho River area, which is influenced by artificial factors such as sewage treatment plant effluent, small and medium-sized livestock wastewater, and small-scale factory wastewater. Since the elasticity of major tributaries of the Nakdong River is over weak and is reasonable at a significance level of 5%, it was analyzed that the air-water temperature fluctuation caused by climate changes is large.

본 연구에서는 낙동강 주요 지류의 기온과 수온 자료를 이용하여 탄성도를 산정하고 수온의 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 탄성도에 대한 신뢰구간 추정과 가설검증이 가능한 비모수 기반의 탄성도 해석기법을 개발하여 기존 중간값을 이용하는 기법과 비교하고 적용성을 검토하였다. 계절적으로 겨울의 탄성도가 낮고 여름과 가을의 탄성도가 높은 것으로 분석되어 기온의 변동에 따른 수온 및 수질의 변동이 클 것으로 분석되었다. 공간적으로 하수처리장 방류수, 중소 축사의 가축폐수, 소규모 공장의 오·폐수 등 인위적인 요인의 영향을 받는 금호강 지역의 탄성도가 낮은 경향을 나타내고 있다. 낙동강 주요 지류의 탄성도는 약 이상이고 유의수준 5%에서 타당하므로 기후변화에 따른 기온-수온 변동이 큰 것으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

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