Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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A Study on the Forecast of Sales of High Level Convenience Store Products Using System Dynamics - Focused on the Icecup and Cigarette

시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 편의점 상위상품 매출예측에 관한 연구 - 아이스컵 및 담배를 중심으로

  • Kim, Dong-Myung (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University) ;
  • Park, Sung-Hoon (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University) ;
  • Yeo, Gi-Tae (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University)
  • 김동명 (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원) ;
  • 박성훈 (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원) ;
  • 여기태 (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원)
  • Received : 2020.06.01
  • Accepted : 2020.08.20
  • Published : 2020.08.28
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to forecast the sales of convenience store flagship products with nonlinear characteristics and time series characteristics. According to the results, the sales of 'Ice Cup' began to increase from March, reached the highest value in summer, especially July and August, and then decreased, revealing a seasonal pattern. Cigarettes showed a seasonal pattern of higher sales in summer and lower sales in winter and was predicted to decrease in sales in the future. This study provides an academic implication in that it focused on the top-selling products that affected an increase in financial performance in a specific convenience store, a method that has been hardly adopted by the existing studies.

본 연구의 목적은 비선형적인 특성과 시계열 특성을 가지고 있는 편의점 대표상품의 매출을 예측하는데 있다. 연구결과, '아이스 컵(Ice cup)'의 경우 3월부터 매출이 증가하여 여름인 7~8월에 가장 높은 값을 나타내고, 이후에는 매출이 떨어지는 계절성 패턴을 구현하였다. 한편 담배의 경우, 여름에 높은 매출을 기록하고 겨울에 낮은 매출을 기록하는 계절성을 나타냈으며, 미래 예측치도 하락하는 양상을 보였다. 본 연구의 학문적 시사점으로는 기존 연구에는 분석되지 않았던 편의점 재무성과 향상에 영향을 미치는 상위 매출상품에 집중하여 연구를 수행하여 미래 예측치를 제시하였다.

Keywords

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