한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)

  • 제62권4호
  • /
  • Pages.33-43
  • /
  • 2020
  • /
  • 1738-3692(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2093-7709(eISSN)
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

기상예보 기반 농촌유역 침수 위험도 예보를 위한 침수 확률 DB 구축

Establishment of Inundation Probability DB for Forecasting the Farmland Inundation Risk Using Weather Forecast Data

  • Kim, Si-Nae (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang-Min (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Hyun-Ji (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Soon-Ho (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Choi, Soon-Kun (Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kang, Moon-Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Institute of Agriculture and Life sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2020.05.15
  • 심사 : 2020.07.03
  • 발행 : 2020.07.31
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

In order to reduce damage from farmland inundation caused by recent climate change, it is necessary to predict the risk of farmland inundation accurately. Inundation modeling should be performed by considering multiple time distributions of possible rainfalls, as digital forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration is provided on a six-hour basis. As building multiple inputs and creating inundation models take a lot of time, it is necessary to shorten the forecast time by building a data base (DB) of farmland inundation probability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish a DB of farmland inundation probability in accordance with forecasted rainfalls. In this study, historical data of the digital forecasts was collected and used for time division. Inundation modeling was performed 100 times for each rainfall event. Time disaggregation of forecasted rainfall was performed by applying the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which uses consistency of fractal characteristics to six-hour rainfall data. To analyze the inundation of farmland, the river level was simulated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The level of farmland was calculated by applying a simulation technique based on the water balance equation. The inundation probability was calculated by extracting the number of inundation occurrences out of the total number of simulations, and the results were stored in the DB of farmland inundation probability. The results of this study can be used to quickly predict the risk of farmland inundation, and to prepare measures to reduce damage from inundation.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Centre for Reserch on the Epodemiology of Disasters (CRED), 2018. Emergency events database (EM-DAT).
  2. Choi, J. K., H. Y. Kim, and J. G. Son, 1997. A study on the outlet drain discharge from paddy field. Journal of Korean Society of Agriculture Engineers 39(2): 134-142 (in Korean).
  3. Jun, S. M., H. J. Lee, S. H. Hwang, J. H. Song, S. K. Choi, and M. S. Kang, 2019. General inundation modeling of paddy field districts considering drainage delay. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 61(4):87-96 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2019.61.4.087.
  4. Jun, S. M., J. H. Song, S. K. Choi, K. D. Lee, and M. S. Kang, 2018. Combined 1D/2D inundation simulation of riverside farmland using HEC-RAS. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 60(5): 135-147 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2018.60.5.135.
  5. Jun, S. M., M. S. Kang, S. H. Hwang, J. H. Park, and J. H. Song, 2020. Flood vulnerability assessment for prioritizing and evaluating rehabilitation of ungauged reservoirs considering climate change. Water 12(7): 1901. doi:10.3390/w12071901.
  6. Kang, B., and S. Moon, 2010. Realtime streamflow prediction using quantitative precipitation model output. Journal of Korean Socieity of Civil Engineers 30(6):579-587.
  7. Kim, C. G., S. W. Park, and S. J. Im, 2000. Runoff hydrograph synthesis from small watersheds considering hydrological characteristics of irrigated rice paddies. Journal of Korean Society of Agriculture Engineers 42(6):56-62 (in Korean).
  8. Kim, D. H., and S. M. Jang, 2017. A stochastic flood analysis using weather forecasts and a simple catchment dynamics. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 50(11): 735-743 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.11.735.
  9. Kim, D. H., S. K. Yoon, M. S. Kang, and K. D. Lee, 2016. Applicability of a multiplicative random cascade model for disaggregation of forecasted rainfalls. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 58(5): 91-95 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2016.58.5.091.
  10. Kim, J. H., W. J. Yoon, and D. H. Bae, 2005. Real-time application of streamflow forecast using precipitation forecast. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 38(1): 11-23. doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2005.38.1.011.
  11. Korea Rural Community Corporation, 2012. A study on design standards of agricultural drainage. 11-1541000-001624-01. Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs.
  12. Lee, H. J., S. M. Jun, S. H. Hwang, S. K. Choi, J. H. Park, and M. S. Kang, 2020. Assessment of flood probability based on temporal distribution of forecastedrainfall in Cheongmicheon watershed. Journal of Korean Society of Agriculture Engineers 62(1): 17-27 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.1.017.
  13. Lee, J. J., 2011. Intergrated safety management system for agricultural production infrastructure in response to climate change. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 53(3): 2-8 (in Korean).
  14. Lee, S. J., C. S. Jeong, J. C. Kim, and M. H. Hwang, 2011. Long-term streamflow prediction using ESP and RDAPS model. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 44(12): 967-974 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.12.967.
  15. Mandelbrot, B., 1974. Intermittent turbulence in self-similar cascades-Divergence of high moments and dimension of carrier. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 62(2): 331-358. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112074000711
  16. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport (MOLIT), 2012. Guidelines for calculating the design floods (in Korean).
  17. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport (MOLIT), 2011. Master plan reports of Cheongmi stream (in Korean).
  18. Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS), 2018. Annual report of disaster 2017 (in Korean).
  19. Muller, H., and U. Haberlandt, 2015. Temporal rainfall disaggregation with a cascade model: from single-station disaggregation to spatial rainfall. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 20(11): 04015026. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001195.
  20. Muller, H., and U. Haberlandt, 2016. Temporal rainfall disaggregation using a multiplicative cascade model for spatial application in urban hydrology. Journal of Hydrology 556: 847-864. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.031.
  21. Park, J. H., S. W. Hwang, J. H. Song, and M. S. Kang, 2020. An alternative for estimating the design flood interval of agricultural reservoirs under climate change using a non-parametric resampling technique. Water 12(7):1894. doi:10.3390/w12071894.
  22. Ryu, J. H., M. S. Kang, S. M. Jun, J. H. Park, and K. D. Lee, 2017, Future inundation characteristics analysis for the cheongmi stream watershed considering non-stationarity of precipitation. Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 59(1): 81-86 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2017.59.1.081.
  23. US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, 2016. HEC-RAS hydraulic reference manual version 5.0.
  24. Yoon, J. Y., 2011. Impacts and prospects of climate change on crop production, World Agriculture 125: 3-20 (in Korean).