Geomechanics and Engineering

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Reliability and risk assessment for rainfall-induced slope failure in spatially variable soils

  • Zhao, Liuyuan (Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University) ;
  • Huang, Yu (Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University) ;
  • Xiong, Min (Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University) ;
  • Ye, Guanbao (Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University)
  • Received : 2019.09.29
  • Accepted : 2020.06.26
  • Published : 2020.08.10
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Abstract

Slope reliability analysis and risk assessment for spatially variable soils under rainfall infiltration are important subjects but they have not been well addressed. This lack of study may in part be due to the multiple and diverse evaluation indexes and the low computational efficiency of Monte-Carlo simulations. To remedy this, this paper proposes a highly efficient computational method for investigating random field problems for slopes. First, the probability density evolution method (PDEM) is introduced. This method has high computational efficiency and does not need the tens of thousands of numerical simulation samples required by other methods. Second, the influence of rainfall on slope reliability is investigated, where the reliability is calculated from based on the safety factor curves during the rainfall. Finally, the uncertainty of the sliding mass for the slope random field problem is analyzed. Slope failure consequences are considered to be directly correlated with the sliding mass. Calculations showed that the mass that slides is smaller than the potential sliding mass (shallow surface sliding in rainfall). Sliding mass-based risk assessment is both needed and feasible for engineered slope design. The efficient PDEM is recommended for problems requiring lengthy calculations such as random field problems coupled with rainfall infiltration.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41831291 and 41625011) and the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC1501304).

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