Korea Journal of Hospital Management (한국병원경영학회지)

Korean Society of Hospital Management (한국병원경영학회)
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Predictive analysis of the Number of Cataract Surgeries

백내장 수술건수 추이예측 분석

  • Jeong, Ji-Yun (Department of Health Administration, Yonsei University Graduate School) ;
  • Jeong, Jae-Yeon (Department of Health Administration, Yonsei University Graduate School) ;
  • Lee, Hae-Jong (Department of Health Administration, Yonsei University College of Health Sciences)
  • 정지윤 (연세대학교 대학원 보건행정학과) ;
  • 정재연 (연세대학교 대학원 보건행정학과) ;
  • 이해종 (연세대학교 보건과학대학 보건행정학과)
  • Received : 2020.04.08
  • Accepted : 2020.05.26
  • Published : 2020.06.30
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Abstract

Purposes: This study aims to investigate the number of cataract surgeries and predict future trends using 13-year data. Methodology: Trends investigation and comparison of prediction methods was conducted to determine better prediction model using Major Surgery Statistics from Korean Statistical Information Service in 2006-2018. ARIMA(Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) was selected and prediction was conducted using R program. Findings: As a results, the number of surgeries will continue to increase. The trends was predicted to increase during January-April, and it declined over time and was the lowest in August. Pratical Implications: Therefore, it is necessary that management will be needed by continuously investigating and predicting the demand and trend for surgery to prepare an alternative to the increase.

Keywords

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