Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Assessment of Flood Probability Based on Temporal Distribution of Forecasted-Rainfall in Cheongmicheon Watershed

예보강우의 시간분포에 따른 청미천 유역의 홍수 확률 평가

  • Lee, Hyunji (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang Min (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Soon Ho (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Choi, Soon-Kun (Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Park, Jihoon (Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2019.05.22
  • Accepted : 2019.11.07
  • Published : 2020.01.31
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess the flood probability based on temporal distribution of forecasted-rainfall in Cheongmicheon watershed. In this study, 6-hr rainfalls were disaggregated into hourly rainfall using the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which is a stochastic rainfall time disaggregation model and it was repeated 100 times to make 100 rainfalls for each storm event. The watershed runoff was estimated using the Clark unit hydrograph method with disaggregated rainfall and watershed characteristics. Using the peak discharges of the simulated hydrographs, the probability distribution was determined and parameters were estimated. Using the parameters, the probability density function is shown and the flood probability is calculated by comparing with the design flood of Cheongmicheon watershed. The flood probability results differed for various values of rainfall and rainfall duration. In addition, the flood probability calculated in this study was compared with the actual flood damage in Cheongmicheon watershed (R2 = 0.7). Further, this study results could be used for flood forecasting.

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References

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