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Sampling-based Approach for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

지진 확률론적 리스크 평가를 위한 샘플링기반 접근법

  • Kwag, Shinyoung (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanbat National University) ;
  • Eem, Seunghyun (School of Convergence and Fusion System Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Park, Junhee (Mechanical and Structural Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) ;
  • Choi, In-Kil (Mechanical and Structural Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute)
  • 곽신영 (한밭대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 임승현 (경북대학교 융복합시스템공학부 플랜트시스템전공) ;
  • 박준희 (한국원자력연구원 기계.구조안전연구부) ;
  • 최인길 (한국원자력연구원 기계.구조안전연구부)
  • Received : 2020.01.15
  • Accepted : 2020.01.28
  • Published : 2020.04.30

Abstract

In this study, we develop a sampling-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) quantification technique that can accurately consider a partially dependent condition of component seismic fragility information. Specifically, the SPRA quantification method is proposed by combining the advantages of two representative methodologies: EPRI seismic fragility and JAERI seismic fragility input-based quantification. The most important feature of the proposed method is that it performs a SPRA using a sampling technique by transforming the EPRI seismic fragility input into JAERI seismic fragility input. When the proposed sampling-based approach was applied to an example of simple system and to a SPRA problem of a nuclear power plant, it was observed that the proposed method yields approximately similar system seismic fragility and seismic risk results as those of the exact solution. Therefore, it is believed that the approach proposed in this study can be used as a useful tool for accurately assessing seismic risks, considering the partial seismic dependence among the components; the existing SPRA method cannot handle such partial dependencies.

본 연구에서 기기 지진취약도 정보의 부분 종속 관계를 정확하게 고려할 수 있는 샘플링 기반 지진 확률론적 리스크 평가 정량화 기법을 개발하였다. 구체적으로 두 가지 대표적 방법론인 EPRI 지진취약도 입력기반 정량화 방법과 JAERI 지진취약도 입력기반 정량화 기법의 장점을 결합하여 리스크 정량화 방법를 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 방법의 가장 중요한 특징은 EPRI 지진취약도 입력을 JAERI 지진취약도 입력 공간으로 치환하여 샘플링 방법으로 SPRA 수행하는 것에 있다. 제안된 샘플링기반 접근법을 간단한 예제부터 실제 원전의 지진 확률론적 리스크 평가 문제에 적용한 결과, 본 연구에서 제안하는 방법이 정해에 가까운 시스템 지진취약도 및 지진리스크 값을 산출함을 확인할 수 있었다. 그러므로 본 연구에서 제안하는 방법론은 기존의 SPRA 정량화 방법이 다룰 수 없는 시스템 내 부분 종속 조건을 고려하여 지진 리스크를 정확하게 평가할 수 있는 유용한 도구로 활용될 수 있을 것이라 기대한다.

Keywords

References

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