The Effect of Vocational Training on Employment Outcome in Korea's Training Credit Program

내일배움카드제 훈련이 취업성과에 미치는 영향

  • Received : 2020.01.15
  • Accepted : 2020.02.25
  • Published : 2020.03.31

Abstract

As the economic environment rapidly changes, the ability to flexibly adapt has become a vital skill which is primarily attained through education and training. Subsequently, it is essential that the effects of vocational eduction and training are closely examined to see if they are fulfilling their goals; specifically, whether they bolster the chances of gaining employment. To that end, the endogenous aspects of training variables must be controlled. This study critically assesses the approaches of current literature in regards to tackling the endogeneity issue, and investigates the effects of vocational training through various econometric models. The results failed to reveal any positive effects of Korea's vocational training on employment. However, the negative effects were also not large enough to be significant. Additionally, the marginal effects were weaker for women and older age groups-which show a disparity between men and women-than for men and younger age groups, respectively. A more comprehensive and in-depth analysis will be needed of these results using recent data and detailed information about the training process.

급속하게 변화하는 경제환경에 개개인이 얼마만큼 유연하게 적응하는가는 매우 중요하며, 그 핵심적인 수단은 교육과 훈련이다. 따라서 직업 교육·훈련이 그 목적을 충분히 달성하고 있는지를 엄밀하게 측정하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 직업 교육·훈련이 실업자의 취업확률을 높이는지 여부, 즉 훈련의 효과를 엄밀하게 측정하기 위해서는 훈련 변수가 가지는 내생성을 통제해야 한다. 본 연구는 내생성 문제에 관한 기존 연구의 접근방법을 비판적으로 검토한 후, 다양한 계량모형을 적용하여 훈련이 취업에 미치는 효과를 살펴보았다. 분석 결과, 내일배움카드제의 훈련이 취업에 미치는 긍정적 효과는 확인할 수 없었다. 다만, 부정적인 효과가 유의미할 정도로 크지는 않은 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 훈련의 한계효과는 남성에 비해 여성에서, 저연령층에 비해 고연령층에서 부진한 모습을 보였으며, 연령에 따른 모습은 남성과 여성 간에 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과에 대해서는 자료의 업데이트와 훈련과정에 대한 상세한 정보를 이용하여 보다 종합적이고 심층적으로 분석될 필요가 있다.

Keywords

References

  1. 강순희.어수봉.최기성. 미취업자의 직업훈련 참가 결정요인과 고용성과 분석. HRD 연구 17권 2호 (2015. 5): 267-298.
  2. 고용노동부. 직업능력개발사업현황. 2019.
  3. 김용성.박우람. 실업지속의 원인분석과 직업훈련의 효과 및 개선방안에 관한 연구. 한국개발연구원, 2015.
  4. 나영선.정원호.이상준.이종훈. 실업자 직업훈련 체계개선방안 연구. 한국직업능력개발원, 2007.
  5. 나현미.심지현.정란. 직업능력개발계좌제 훈련 참가자의 취업 영향 요인 분석. Andragogy Today: Interdisciplinary Journal of Adult & Continuing Education 16권 1호 (2013. 2): 85-104.
  6. 남재욱. 내일배움카드제와 민간훈련시장. 2019년 직업능력정책포럼 발제자료,, 2019.
  7. 대통령직속 일자리위원회. 국민내일배움카드 시행계획. 제13차 일자리위원회 의결안건 3 (2019. 11)
  8. 류기락.나영선.이수경.김미란.정재호. 직업능력개발훈련 이수자 실태조사. 한국직업능력개발원, 2014.
  9. 유경준.강창희. 직업훈련의 임금효과 분석: 경제활동인구조사를 중심으로. 한국개발연구 32권 2호 (2010): 29-53.
  10. 유경준.이철인. 실업자 직업훈련의 효과 추정. 노동경제논집 31권 1호 (2008. 4): 59-103.
  11. 이병희. 실업자재취직훈련의 재취업 성과에 관한 준실험적 평가. 노동경제논집 23권 2호 (2000. 12): 107-126.
  12. 이상준. 직업능력개발 계좌제의 정책 효과와 실업자훈련의 잠금 효과. 경제학연구 60집 1호 (2012. 3): 33-67.
  13. 조준모.박상일.나영선.안준기.이재성. 직업능력개발계좌제 시범사업 평가 및 개선방안 연구. 뉴거버넌스연구센터, 2010.
  14. 최영섭.김미란.정재호.남재욱.이영민. 내일배움카드 통합 방안 연구. 한국직업능력개발원, 2019.
  15. Arendt, Jacob N., and Anders Holm. "Probit Models with Binary Endogenous Regressors." Centre for Applied Microeconometrics, Department of Economics University of Copenhagen, Working Paper 2006-06, (June, 2006).
  16. Betcherman, Gordon, Karina Olivas, and Amit Dar. "Impacts of Active Labor Market Programs: New Evidence from Evaluation with Particular Attention to Developing and Transition Countries." Social Protection Discussion Paper Series No. 0402, World Bank, (January 2004).
  17. Bound, John, Jager David A., and Regina M. Baker. "Problems with Instrumental Variables Estimation when the Correlation between the Instruments and the Endogenous Explanatory Variable is Weak." Journal of American Statistical Association 90 (June 1995): 443-450 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1995.10476536
  18. Burnett, Nancy J. "Gender Economics Courses in Liberal Arts Colleges." Journal of Economic Education 28(4) (Autumn 1997): 369-376. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220489709597940
  19. Card, David, Jochen Kluve, and Weber, Andrea. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis." The Economic Journal 120, (November 2010): F452-F477. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02387.x
  20. Cavaco, S., Fougere, D., and Pouget, J. "Estimating the Effect of a Retraining Program on the Re-Employment Rate of Displaced Workers." Empirical Economics 44(1) (February 2013): 261-287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-010-0391-6
  21. European Commission. Skills Agenda for Europe, 2019.
  22. Hirshleifer, Sarojini., McKenzie, D., Almeida, R., and Ridao-Cano, C. "The Impact of Vocational Training for the Unemployed: Experimental Evidence from Turkey." The Economic Journal 126(597) (November 2016): 2115-2146.
  23. Kluve, Jochen. "The Effectiveness of European active labor market programs," Labour Economics 17(4) (December 2010): 904-918. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2010.02.004
  24. Lee, Myoung-Jae. Micro-Econometrics for Policy, Program, and Treatment Effects. Oxford University Press, 2005.
  25. Martin, John P. What Works Among Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence From OECD Countries' Experience. OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers No. 35, OECD, 1998.
  26. Newey, Whitney K. "Efficient Estimator of Limited Dependent Variable Models with Endogenous Explanatory Variables." Journal of Econometrics 36 (November 1987): 231-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(87)90001-7
  27. Nivorozhkin, A., and Nivorozhkin, E. "Do Government Sponsored Vocational Training Programs Help the Unemployed Find Jobs? Evidence from Russia." Applied Economics Letters 14(1) (February 2007): 5-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500425295
  28. Rivers, Douglas, and Quang H. Vuong. "Limited Information Estimators and Exogeneity Tests for Simultaneous Probit Models." Journal of Econometrics 39 (November 1988): 347-366. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(88)90063-2
  29. Rodriguez-Planas, Nuria, and Benus, Jacob. "Evaluating active labor market programs in Romania." Empirical Economics 38 (2010): .65-84. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-009-0256-z
  30. Rosholm, Michael., and Skipper, Lars. "Is Labour Market Training a Curse for the Unemployed? Evidence from a Social Experiment." Journal of Applied Econometrics 24 (February 2009): 338-365. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1048
  31. Yatchew, Adonis, and Zvi, Griliches. "Specification Error in Probit Models." Review of Economics and Statistics 67 (1) (February 1985): 134-139. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928444
  32. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. 2d ed., The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England, 2010.