Wind and Structures

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Assessment of the directional extreme wind speeds of typhoons via the Copula function and Monte Carlo simulation

  • Wang, Jingcheng (State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University) ;
  • Quan, Yong (State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University) ;
  • Gu, Ming (State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University)
  • Received : 2018.03.11
  • Accepted : 2019.09.17
  • Published : 2020.02.25
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Abstract

Probabilistic information regarding directional extreme wind speeds is important for the precise estimation of the design wind loads on structures. A joint probability distribution model of directional extreme typhoon wind speeds is established using Monte Carlo simulation and empirical copula function to fully consider the correlations of extreme typhoon wind speeds among the different directions. With this model, a procedure for estimating directional extreme wind speeds for given return periods, which ensures that the overall risk is distributed uniformly by direction, is established. Taking 5 typhoon-prone cities in China as examples, the directional extreme typhoon wind speeds for given return periods estimated by the present method are compared with those estimated by the method proposed by Cook and Miller (1999). Two types of directional factors are obtained based on Cook and Miller (1999) and the UK standard's drafting committee (Standard B, 1997), and the directional risks for the given overall risks are discussed. The influences of the extreme wind speed correlations in the different directions and the simulated typhoon wind speed sample sizes on the estimated extreme wind speeds for a given return period are also discussed.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : National Natural Science Foundation

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