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Development of water circulation status estimation model by using multiple linear regression analysis of urban characteristic factors

도시특성 요인의 다중선형회귀 분석을 이용한 물순환상태추정모델 개발

  • Kim, Youngran (Division of Living and Built Environment Research, Technology Development Headquarter, Seoul Institute Technology) ;
  • Hwang, Seonghwan (Division of Living and Built Environment Research, Technology Development Headquarter, Seoul Institute Technology) ;
  • Lee, Yunsun (Division of Living and Built Environment Research, Technology Development Headquarter, Seoul Institute Technology)
  • 김영란 (서울기술연구원 기술개발본부 생활환경연구실) ;
  • 황성환 (서울기술연구원 기술개발본부 생활환경연구실) ;
  • 이연선 (서울기술연구원 기술개발본부 생활환경연구실)
  • Received : 2020.10.13
  • Accepted : 2020.11.23
  • Published : 2020.12.15

Abstract

Identifying the water circulation status is one of the indispensable processes for watershed management in an urban area. Recently, various water circulation models have been developed to simulate the water circulation, but it takes a lot of time and cost to make a water circulation model that could adapt the characteristics of the watershed. This paper aims to develop a water circulation state estimation model that could easily calculate the status of water circulation in an urban watershed by using multiple linear regression analysis. The study watershed is a watershed in Seoul that applied the impermeable area ratio in 1962 and 2000. And, It was divided into 73 watersheds in order to consider changes in water circulation status according to the urban characteristic factors. The input data of the SHER(Similar Hydrologic Element Response) model, a water circulation model, were used as data for the urban characteristic factors of each watershed. A total of seven factors were considered as urban characteristic factors. Those factors included annual precipitation, watershed area, average land-surface slope, impervious surface ratio, coefficient of saturated permeability, hydraulic gradient of groundwater surface, and length of contact line with downstream block. With significance probabilities (or p-values) of 0.05 and below, all five models showed significant results in estimating the water circulation status such as the surface runoff rate and the evapotranspiration rate. The model that was applied all seven urban characteristics factors, can calculate the most similar results such as the existing water circulation model. The water circulation estimation model developed in this study is not only useful to simply estimate the water circulation status of ungauged watersheds but can also provide data for parameter calibration and validation.

Keywords

References

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