Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Study on Timber Yield Regulation Method using Probability Density Function

확률밀도함수를 이용한 목재수확조절법 연구

  • Park, Jung-Mook (Department of Forest Management, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Jung-Soo (Department of Forest Management, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Ho-Sang (Warm Temperate and Subtropical Forest Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Park, Jin-Woo (Department of Forest Management, Kangwon National University)
  • 박정묵 (강원대학교 산림경영학전공) ;
  • 이정수 (강원대학교 산림경영학전공) ;
  • 이호상 (국립산림과학원 난대.아열대산림연구소) ;
  • 박진우 (강원대학교 산림경영학전공)
  • Received : 2020.11.14
  • Accepted : 2020.12.11
  • Published : 2020.12.31
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Abstract

This study estimated planned felling volumes to set targets for management planning of nationwide country-owned forests. Estimates were made using timber harvest prediction methods that use probability density functions, including area weighting (AW), area ratio weighting (ARW), and sample area change ratio weighting (SCRW). Country-owned forest areas in 2010 and 2015 were used to estimate planned felling volumes, as shown in basic forest statistics, and calculations were made assuming that the felling areas were the changes in the forest area over the 5-year period. For the age classes of V-VI, the average felling ages for AW, ARW, and SCRW were 5.41, 5.56, and 5.37, respectively, and the felling areas were 594,462, 586,704, and 580,852 ha, respectively, with ARW reaching closest to the actual changes. The actual changes in the areas and chi-squared test results were most stable with the SCRW method. This study showed that SCRW was more adequate than AW and ARW as a method to predict timber harvests for forest management planning.

본 연구는 확률밀도함수를 이용한 목재수확예측기법으로 면적가중치법(AW), 면적비율가중치법(ARW), 표본면적변화율가중치법(SCRW)를 적용하여 전국 국유림의 산림경영계획 목표량 설정을 위한 벌채계획량을 추정하였다. 벌채계획량 추정을 위한 산림면적은 산림기본통계의 2010년, 2015년의 영급별 국유림면적을 이용하였으며, 5년간의 산림면적변화량을 벌채면적으로 가정하여 산출하였다. AW, ARW, SCRW를 이용한 벌기령의 평균은 각각 5.41, 5.56, 5.37로 V~VI영급수준으로 산출되었다. 벌채면적은 각각 594,462 ha, 586,704 ha, 580,852 ha로 SCRW가 실제 면적변화량과 가장 유사하였으며, Chi-square 검정도 SCRW이 가장 안정적으로 분석되었다. 산림경영계획의 목재수확예측을 위한 방법으로 SCRW가 AW와 ARW보다 적합한 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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