전자통신동향분석 (Electronics and Telecommunications Trends)

한국전자통신연구원 (Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute)
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모바일 트래픽 동향

Mobile Traffic Trends

  • 발행 : 2019.06.01
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초록

Mobile traffic is one of the most important indexes of the growth of the mobile communications market, and it has a close relationship with subscribers' service usage patterns, frequency demand and supply, network management, and information communication policy. The purpose of this paper is to understand mobile data usage in Korea and to suggest the optimal steps for establishing the frequency supply and demand system by researching the traffic trends that reflect the characteristics of radio resources in the mobile communications field. To achieve this goal, attempts were made to increase the possibility of policy use by analyzing and forecasting mobile traffic trends, and to improve the accuracy of the research through the verification of the existing prediction results. The paper ends with a discussion of the necessity of a frequency management system based on data science.

키워드

HJTOCM_2019_v34n3_106_f0001.png 이미지

그림 1 트래픽 증가 요인

HJTOCM_2019_v34n3_106_f0002.png 이미지

그림 2 모바일 트래픽 추이(TB/year, Logarithmic scale)

HJTOCM_2019_v34n3_106_f0003.png 이미지

그림 3 이동통신 데이터 트래픽 추이(PB/월, %)

HJTOCM_2019_v34n3_106_f0004.png 이미지

그림 4 가입자당 월 트래픽 증감 추이(MB/월)

HJTOCM_2019_v34n3_106_f0005.png 이미지

그림 6 4G 이용자별 트래픽 발생 구조

HJTOCM_2019_v34n3_106_f0006.png 이미지

그림 5 콘텐츠 유형별 트래픽 현황

HJTOCM_2019_v34n3_106_f0007.png 이미지

그림 7 K-ICT 스펙트럼 플랜의 4G 트래픽 예측검정

HJTOCM_2019_v34n3_106_f0008.png 이미지

그림 8 이동통신 트래픽 전망(EB/월)

참고문헌

  1. 전기통신사업법, 2019.
  2. ITU-R, "IMT Traffic Estimates for the 2020 to 2030," Report ITU-R M.2370-0, 2015.
  3. Cisco, "Visual Networking Index: and Trends, 2017-2022," 2018.
  4. Ericsson, "Mobility Report," 2018.
  5. S. Lee, C. Cho, E. Hong, B. Yoon, "Forecasting Mobile Broadband Traffic: Application of Scenario Analysis and Delphi Method," Expert Syst. Applicat., vol. 44, 2016, pp. 126-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.09.030
  6. Collins English Dictionary. https://www.collinsdictionary.com
  7. C. E. Shannon, "A Mathematical Theory of Communication," Bell Syst. Techn. J., vol. 27, no. 3, 1948, pp. 379-423. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x
  8. C. D. Lewis, "Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods," London: Butterworths, 1982.