Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea (한국경제지리학회지)

The Economic Geographical Society of Korea (한국경제지리학회)
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Estimating the Impact of Automation and Globalization on Manufacturing Employment using Regional Labor Market Analysis

지역별 제조업 고용변화에 대한 자동화와 세계화의 영향

  • Received : 2019.09.23
  • Published : 2019.09.30
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Abstract

This article links the change in regional manufacturing employment in Korea after the financial crisis to the geography of technological and trade shocks. We conceptualize the trade shock as the rapid growth in Korean imports from and exports to China and ASEAN countries. We then measure the exposure to technological shocks as the degree to which regions are specialized in routine tasks, which are susceptible to automation technologies. Results show that local labor markets specialized in routine tasks experience significant falls in manufacturing employment. Regions whose industrial structure exposes them to rising import competition experience sharp drop in manufacturing employment. We also found that export plays a major role in explaining the growth of regional manufacturing employment.

본 연구는 2010년부터 2015년까지 시군구별 제조업 고용변화에 대한 자동화와 세계화의 영향을 추정하였다. 분석 결과, 후발산업국가로의 수입침투에 취약하게 노출된 업종구조를 가진 지역일수록 제조업 고용이 빠르게 감소하였다. 또 단순반복적인 루틴직무에 특화된 지역일수록 제조업 고용의 감소가 빠르게 진행되었는데, 이 같은 루틴직무의 소멸은 지역산업의 로봇규모가 증가할수록 더욱 가파르게 진행되었다. 이 같은 결과는 금융위기 이후 제조업 고용이 빠르게 증가했음에도, 국지적으로는 산업도시들의 고용위기가 심화되었던 국내 제조업 고용의 추이를 이해하는 데 실증적인 단서를 제공한다. 동시에, 세계화와 자동화의 맥락에서 향후 우리나라 산업도시들의 대응방향에 대한 정책적 함의를 담고 있다.

Keywords

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