Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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The effect of Consumer Price, Interest Rate and Sales Performance on the KOSPI

소비자물가와 금리, 매출실적이 종합주가지수에 미치는 영향 분석

  • Received : 2019.07.23
  • Accepted : 2019.10.20
  • Published : 2019.10.28
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Abstract

Recently, the Korean economy is congested with Japan's economic retaliation, the US-China trade war, the Bank of Korea's 0.25% base rate cut and Korea's economic growth forecast revision. The purpose of this study is to analyze the KOSPI, CPI, Treasury bonds(3 years) Interest rate & sales performance of all industries, and examine the impact of each index on the KOSPI. The analysis period is from January 2003 to June 2019, and the effect of each index on the KOSPI is analyzed. In numerical analysis, we performed correlation coefficients and regression analysis. In the model analysis, the distribution, quadrant, scatter, box-plot and impulse response were examined. This study examined the volatility and dynamic characteristics of each index. As a result, the KOSPI showed a high correlation with sales and Treasury bonds, but showed a very low correlation with the CPI. The KOSPI will continue to be affected by sales and interest rates.

최근 한국경제는 일본의 경제보복조치와 미국과 중국 간 무역전쟁, 한국은행의 0.25% 기준금리 인하, 한국의 경제성장률 전망치 수정으로 혼잡한 상황이다. 본 연구의 목적은 한국종합주가지수와 소비자물가지수, 국고채(3년) 금리, 전산업의 매출실적을 분석하여 각 지수별로 종합주가지수에 미치는 영향을 살펴보는데 있다. 분석기간은 2003년 1월부터 2019년 6월까지이고, 각 지수별로 종합주가지수에 미치는 정도를 분석하였다. 본 연구는 수치분석에서 상관계수와 회귀분석을, 모형분석에서 분포도, 사분위도, Scatter, Box-Plot, Impulse Response를 살펴보았다. 이를 통해 각 지수별 변동성과 동행성을 찾아보았다. 분석결과 종합주가지수는 매출실적과 국고채금리 순으로 높은 동행성과 변동률을 보인 반면 소비자물가지수와는 매우 낮은 상관관계를 보여 주었다. 앞으로 종합주가지수는 매출실적과 금리의 영향을 받을 것으로 보여 꾸준한 관심이 필요해 보인다.

Keywords

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